College basketball best bets today

Well, if you thought that the 15-game Friday night cards in college basketball were disappointing, allow me to present to you the February 9 schedule.

  • Dayton vs. VCU
  • San Diego State vs. Nevada
  • San Jose State vs. Colorado State

That’s it, my friends. There are three games on the college basketball card. Therefore, I will not have any college basketball best bets today, but I’ll give you some quick capsules and my thoughts on each game. I just don’t see any bets that I like on the slate, but I don’t want to leave everybody empty-handed.

 

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Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Dayton Flyers (-1, 135.5) at VCU Rams

7 p.m. ET

Maybe I haven’t consumed enough mainstream media for college basketball, but Dayton doesn’t seem to be getting a lot of run. They Flyers are 19-3 with losses to Northwestern, Houston, and Richmond on the road – all Quadrant 1 games. VCU is 0-3 in Q1 games, but they get one tonight with Dayton.

The Flyers scare me a bit because they are really dependent on 3s, shooting one 44.8% of the time, but they are 40% from deep. They’re 11th in eFG% because they’re 54th in 2P% and 6th in 3P%. They also do a masterful job keeping opponents from the rim and defend the 3-point line well.

Good test for them tonight against a VCU crew that is 5th in eFG% defense. Opponents are only shooting 28.9% from 3, so that’s the point of leverage in this game. I think it makes the game too high-variance to play, because opponents are only shooting 31.3% from 3 against Dayton. Whichever team finds more 3-point success will likely take it down, given that neither defense forces turnovers.

Both teams play slow, as Dayton is 348th in adjusted tempo and VCU is 296th. Truly nothing from me in this game. Not even a lean.

San Diego State Aztecs at Nevada Wolf Pack (-2.5, 140.5)

8 p.m. ET

San Diego State heads for Reno to take on Nevada in a battle of two top-50 teams per Bart Torvik. The Aztecs have played a stronger schedule by more than 50 spots per Torvik, so they grade better in the adjusted efficiency metrics. Both teams have identical 2P% at 52.3% and Nevada is about 1% better from 3. They’re 111th in eFG%, while SDSU is 129th.

Neither team gets to the rim at a high rate, as SDSU is at 33.2% and Nevada is at 33.6%. The national average is around 37-38%. Despite not getting to the rim a lot, both of them go to the free throw line a lot. Nevada is 9th in FT Rate and SDSU is 43rd, which plays into the higher total here. These two teams are just below the national average in adjusted tempo.

I have some concerns about Nevada here. They are 11th in 2P% in conference play, but they do lead in 3P%. The problem is that their 32% 3P Rate is ninth among the conference’s teams. They are only 8th in eFG% offense and sixth in eFG% defense, while the Aztecs are No. 1 in eFG% defense and 2P%. San Diego State’s issues have been on offense, where they’ve struggled to make shots.

I lean SDSU +2.5 here. They’re the better rebounding team and the stronger defensive squad. That said, in road tests against New Mexico, Boise State, and Colorado State, the Aztecs have come up short.

San Jose State Spartans at Colorado State Rams (-16, 143)

9:30 p.m. ET

We’ve got another Mountain West clash here in this one between San Jose State and Colorado State. My first thought is that this line is too high because Colorado State is 269th in adjusted tempo per Torvik and San Jose State is 285th. Also, San Jose State takes good care of the basketball, making it harder for a team to blow them out…

Or at least in theory. SJSU has lost by 12, 30, 21, 12, and 20 in their last five games. Colorado State is 8th in eFG%, 6th in 2P%, and 86th in 3P%, so this is a legitimately good offense taking on a San Jose State defense that is 315th in eFG% defense. The Spartans are allowing opponents to bomb away at 38.1% from 3, which is the fifth-worst mark in the nation.

SJSU is actually a top-100 offense themselves by eFG%, but they’ve struggled in conference play, at least relative to their peers. A 50.1% 2P% is only good for 10th. They are 4th in 3P%, but 10th in most defensive categories and 11th in 3P% against where opponents are shooting 43.3%.

I still lean SJSU +16, as that’s a lot of points in a game likely played to around 66 possessions, but no official bets from me for today.

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