College Basketball Best Bets Today:
Another one of the greatest sports days of the year is upon us, as we have the second day of the NCAA Tournament. We had two thrillers in the First Four, a few bangers on Thursday, and hopefully we’ll get a whole lot of drama here on Friday. It’s another full day of basketball, betting, beers, buddies, and whatever else you use to enjoy the day.
Our March Mania Betting Guide is now available to VSiN Pro subscribers, which you can become for the low cost of $9.99 for the first month. We also have previews of every NCAA Tournament game coming your way as things progress.
Here are my favorite evening plays for Friday in hopes of giving everybody enough lead time to check out the article.
Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.
This article will run every day with CBB games through the end of the season. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Akron Zips vs. Arizona Wildcats (-14.5, 165.5)
7:35 p.m. ET
The Zips and Wildcats meet in Seattle, so this will be a true neutral-site game in the East Region. Akron won the MAC and Arizona made it to the title game of the Big 12, so both teams are in decent form. In Tommy Lloyd’s three NCAA Tournament appearances, the Wildcats have been a No. 1 or No. 2 seed and have a 17-point win over Wright State, a four-point loss to Princeton, and a 20-point win over a Long Beach State team that had no business winning the Big West, but did so for departing head coach Dan Monson.
Akron fits the profile of a team that can make some noise in this game and maybe a little more. The Zips shoot 2s and 3s extremely well, as they’re a top-35 team in 2P% and a top-50 team in 3P%. Overall, the Zips are a top-30 eFG% team on the offensive side. Arizona has struggled a bit to defend 3s this season and they’re not a particularly good team at forcing turnovers.
It’s going to be tough for them to be as efficient on both sides of the ball to cover this type of number, given the statistical composition of the Zips and fairly comparable rebounding numbers. Also, I’m wary of Lloyd’s team being ready to go, but I feel like John Groce’s team will be. They’re composed differently than last year’s team that lost to Creighton by 17, as they’re less dependent on a big like Enrique Freeman, who still had 21 and 14, but had a 35% Usage Rate.
Pick: Akron +14.5
Xavier Musketeers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (-4, 161.5)
9:45 p.m. ET
Xavier won their way into this game in Milwaukee by winning in Dayton, in what was a de facto home game for the Musketeers. Champaign is a closer trip than Cincinnati, so I think we’ll see a very pro-Illinois crowd, for whatever that’s worth.
Frankly, I just think Illinois is a team in a great position coming into the tournament. They check a lot of boxes and were slowed by illness during the regular season, particularly in Big Ten play. This is a top-15 team by adjusted offensive efficiency per Torvik, even though they rank in the 310s in 3P%. I think the Illini have the pieces to shoot a bit better in this tournament and will continue their dominance inside, as it’s hard to match up with 7-foot-1 Tomislav Ivisic in the block.
Xavier can shoot the heck out of the ball from 3, but the Illini have a 30.4% 3P Rate against, which is the third-lowest in the nation. They sell out to keep teams from taking those, which means Xavier is likely to find a lot of contested shots. The Musketeers also aren’t very good defensively, as they rank in the 200s in 3P% defense and 160s in 2P% defense. Their eFG% defense ranks in the 170s and they don’t force a lot of turnovers.
I don’t see the interior presence to hang with Illinois, unless they’re able to knock down a lot of their contested shots. This is also a Xavier team that is 2-9 in Quadrant 1 games this season. With Illinois at 4.5 (-102) at DraftKings at time of publish, I’ll grade this at -4 where most of the market is and because I’ve been tracking all year as 1.1 to win 1 to keep the math easy. As I’ve said all season long, shop around for the best odds.
Pick: Illinois -4
