College Basketball Best Bets Today:

It is a pretty busy Friday slate thanks to conference tournament action, as we have 31 games on the docket. Usually we have the inverse or so of that number, so it is a good night’s worth of hoops for those who are interested. Actually, it is a good day’s worth of hoops because Arch Madness starts early in St. Louis. Betting on the Under started really early, as the tournament lived up to its usual billing yesterday with the Under going 3-1.

Anyway, we have regular season action in the Big Ten, Mountain West, MAC, A-10, and AAC, while we have conference tournament action in the Missouri Valley, Big South, Ohio Valley, Sun Belt, Summit, and get the start of the CAA and SoCon Tournaments.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Murray State Racers vs. Bradley Braves (-4.5, 132.5)

7 p.m. ET

The aforementioned Missouri Valley Conference Tournament is where we start tonight with Murray State vs. Bradley. In two games, including a five-minute overtime period, against Bradley, Murray State has only scored 106 points from the floor. The Racers were +14 in free throw attempts and +13 in free throw points in the second meeting, an 85-83 win for Bradley.

The Braves, meanwhile, have scored 129 points from the floor in the two head-to-head meetings. This line implies that Bradley will be leading late and they are a 77% free throw shooting team for the season, including 83.1% and 86.4% from their two most experienced players, who should have the ball in their hands in those late-game situations.

Murray State was 14-of-28 from 3 in last night’s blowout win over Evansville, so I’m expecting regression out of them, especially in a place where shooting numbers typically suffer. In conference play, Bradley was fourth in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, while Murray State was 10th on offense (32.6% 3P%) and fifth on defense.

More notably, Bradley was second in both eFG% offense and defense, while Murray State was 12th in the 12-team conference on offense and fifth on defense. Bradley should do what they’ve done defensively in the prior two meetings and also should salt this game away at the free throw line if needed.

Pick: Bradley -4.5

Pepperdine Waves vs. Portland Pilots (-2.5, 157.5)

9 p.m. ET

The West Coast Conference Tournament gets going here in Vegas on Friday night, as Pepperdine takes on Portland in the first game of the doubleheader. Portland has been good to us this season in spots like this. The Pilots have been pummeled by the top teams in the WCC, as most of the bottom of the conference has, but they’ve played really well against comparable competition.

For example, Portland beat Pepperdine by 20 points in both of their regular season meetings. The Pilots won 84-64 on the road and then 87-67 at home on Feb. 27. I’ve mentioned this before with the Pilots, but they’ve really fought against better teams. To rank seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency in the conference is nice and they’re well ahead of Pepperdine, who finished eighth, but a distant eighth by the numbers.

Portland is better at shooting both 2s and 3s and is also one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country at nearly 80%. Portland also has a much higher 3P Rate, which is one of the reasons why they’ve been able to win by margin in those two meetings. But, Shantay Legans’ team also made a good adjustment from Game 1 to Game 2, getting 30 shot attempts at the rim in the second meeting compared to 14 in the first game.

Pepperdine has dropped eight of their last nine and they gave up on defense late in the season, allowing 1.399, 1.293, 1.366, 1.257, and 1.221 points per possession over their final five games. I don’t think they’re coming to Vegas for a long stay.

Pick: Portland -2.5

Colorado State Rams at Boise State Broncos (-6.5, 140.5)

10 p.m. ET

A regular season game rounds out my Friday card, as Colorado State takes on Boise State. The Rams have struggled badly away from home, which I think has a lot to do with why this line has moved up in favor of Boise State. According to Haslametrics’ Away From Home metric, the Rams are the 10th-worst team in terms of their away/neutral performance vs. the overall season performance.

That being said, they went to Las Vegas and beat UNLV back on Feb. 22 and also played pretty well on offense in their loss to Utah State on Feb. 11. I like the way that Niko Medved’s team is playing right now, as they’ve locked it down on defense and have continued their efficient offensive play.

The Rams won the first meeting 75-72 in Fort Collins and actually led by as many as 17 in the second half before trailing in the final couple of minutes, as they just completely fell apart. That should be a motivating moment for Medved heading into this one, along with the need to get a nice road win before the Mountain West Tournament in Vegas.

From a Momentum metric standpoint, Colorado State is the second-hottest team in the country per Haslam. The Rams are 35th in the nation in eFG% offense and tops in the MWC. They are better defensively than Boise State in both 2P% and 3P% defense. The only real big advantage for Boise State is getting to the free throw line, but I’m not terribly worried about that in a game that will feature a lot of jump shots.

Pick: Colorado State +6.5

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