College Basketball Best Bets Today:
Friday nights are not very busy during the college basketball regular season, but that is not the case tonight with 63 games. Colleges and universities are looking to avoid sharing the spotlight with the football teams, so we see a lot of this in the fall. Once we get deeper into the season, you’ll only see the MAAC, Ivy League, and sporadic games from other conferences on Fridays.
Tonight, though, we’ve got 40 more games than we had last night and 17 more games than we had the last two nights combined, including a massive game between UNC and Kansas. You’ll rarely see me picking the marquee games in this article, as I typically find more value in the smaller conferences that are more likely to have line mistakes or bigger edges. But, I never rule out any game until I dig into it.
Lots of games with minimal data points. I will admit, these are tough ones early in the season with so much player and coach turnover, but I’ve done the research and here’s what I’ve come up with.
Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
William & Mary Tribe (-3.5, 149.5) at Radford Highlanders
7 p.m. ET
We’ve got a CAA vs. Big South matchup in this one, as new-look William & Mary takes on Radford. The Tribe have a first-year head coach in Brian Earl, who recently led a huge improvement at Cornell. The Big Red never made the NCAA Tournament, but they posted winning records in each of his last three seasons, including a 22-8 record and an 11-3 mark in the Ivy League last season.
He developed Cornell into one of the most efficient low-major offensive teams in the nation, finishing 9th, 19th, and 34th in eFG% over the last three seasons. The Tribe had four double-digit scorers last season and three of them are back, plus he brought 6-foot-7 Keller Boothby with him from Cornell.
The opposite is true for Radford under Darris Nichols, who went 16-17 last season with a ton of returning production from a 2023 team that went 21-15 and 12-6 in Big South play. This is a rebuilt roster and one that got smoked by 40 at the hands of Pitt. Obviously William & Mary is nowhere near Pitt’s level, but Radford was 12-for-41 on jumpers and only 6-of-17 at the rim with the mix-and-match roster full of transfers.
The Highlanders play at a really slow pace. Earl will want Bill & Mary to run as the season goes along, so we have a pace war here and also one team projects to be way more efficient on offense than the other.
Pick: William & Mary -3.5
Iona Gaels at Hofstra Pride (-4.5, 147.5)
7 p.m. ET
Hofstra opens up the Division I part of the schedule with a visit from Iona, as the Gaels head to Hempstead, NY for second road game of the campaign. Iona’s first game was an 81-80 barnburner against Princeton with 1.144 PPP for the Gaels and 1.158 PPP for the Tigers. It was actually a bit of a surprising defensive performance from Iona. Tobin Anderson’s two seasons as a head coach have produced TO% of 21.1% (Fairleigh Dickinson’s NCAA Tourney team that beat Purdue) and 22.2% (first year at Iona).
In Game 1 of this season, Iona’s TO% was nearly twice as high as Princeton’s. I’m sure that’ll change as we go forward, but Iona had 80 points without the benefit of being able to score in transition after forcing takeaways. That seems like a good sign for the halfcourt offense.
The Gaels also had 31 shot attempts at the rim and mostly ignored the mid-range with 12 shot attempts. They only took 13 3s, but hit six of them. I like teams that bypass mid-range jumpers for higher-reward and higher-percentage shots.
A lot of people are worried about Hofstra. The losses have been heavy over the last two seasons with Aaron Estrada, Tyler Thomas, and Darlinstone Dubar all moving on. But, it’s important to keep in mind that those were all transfer acquisitions by Speedy Claxton. So, what I’m saying is that I trust him implicitly when it comes to evaluating players in the portal. And they weren’t all from top schools. Thomas was a transfer from Sacred Heart. Dubar was from Iowa State, but Estrada originally committed to Saint Peter’s before barely playing his sophomore year at Oregon.
Holdover German Plotnikov will be the leader of this year’s team and he was a 59% shooter on 2s as a sophomore and then a 71% shooter on 2s, plus a 48% shooter on 3s, as a junior. TJ Gadsden is in from Canisius. Jaquan Sanders is from Sacred Heart. Jean Aranguren is actually in from Iona after shooting nearly 41% on 3s. Carlos Lopez Jr. was a high-volume freshman at Saint Francis.
Claxton finds players that fit and dudes that can get buckets. In four seasons, his teams have been 16th, 16th, and 35th in eFG%. I’d expect more of the same and I think this total is cheap for what we’ll see as the year progresses.
Pick: Over 147.5
Furman Paladins at Belmont Bruins (-2.5, 159)
7:30 p.m. ET
A couple of teams that traditionally shine on the offensive end get together between Furman and Belmont. I will admit that I am far more worried about the Paladins on that end right now than the Bruins.
Furman has had two straight years of significant losses and we saw some of that impact last season, as the Paladins dropped nearly 80 spots in eFG% and down over 70 spots in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. From 2022-23 to 2023-24, Furman lost Mike Bothwell and Jalen Slawson, their two highest Usage players. From 2023-24 to this season, Furman lost JP Pegues and Marcus Foster, their two highest Usage players.
There was a big drop with the losses of Bothwell and Slawson and now we could see bigger losses with Pegues and Foster. Belmont is also rebuilding a bit on offense with some of their top guys, so it’s plausible that they could see similar returns, but Alexander has a longstanding history of being a strong offensive coach over more than a decade, including his time at Lipscomb, where he had three teams win 20+ games.
I like the Bruins here given the trend line for Furman.
Pick: Belmont -2.5
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Santa Clara Broncos (-5, 151)
8 p.m. ET
This is a neutral-site game played in Henderson, NV, a suburb of Las Vegas. I might be falling into a recency bias trap here, but here’s what I know. Arizona State just had .828 points per possession in a 55-48 win over Idaho State on Tuesday night. The Sun Devils were an 18-point favorite. That was on the heels of Bobby Hurley’s epic press conference after Duke destroyed ASU 103-47 in a scrimmage prior to the season.
Hurley had no energy or emotion in his voice after the Idaho State win, noting in melancholy fashion how rare it is for a team to shoot 25% and have a chance late in the game. It’s not like the Sun Devils are devoid of talent. BJ Freeman was a star at Milwaukee. Alston Mason, originally recruited to Oklahoma, was very solid at Missouri State. Jayden Quaintenance is one of the best recruits Hurley has ever gotten.
But, this team is bad right now and they’re especially bad on offense. It could flip quickly, but I’m not sure it does here.
Santa Clara did give up 1.067 PPP to Saint Louis in the opener, but they also had 1.162 PPP on the offensive side in a very nice 85-78 neutral-site win. The Broncos are extremely well-coached under Herb Sendek and have a ton of length and size for a mid-major program. It is Year 2 for Adama Bal, Johnny O’Neill (who averaged 11 PPG last season and had 0 points in the opener), Tyeree Bryan, and Jake Ensminger, plus the third year for 7-footer Christoph Tilly. This is a gifted offensive bunch and Sendek maximizes it well.
Santa Clara was a top-90 team in eFG% last season and a top-70 team in eFG% defense. They were a borderline top 30 offensive rebounding team. And most of that production is back. That’s a good recipe against an Arizona State team still trying to figure it out.
Pick: Santa Clara -5
Weber State Wildcats at Oregon State Beavers (-6, 140.5)
10 p.m. ET
We have a pretty high total for the pace expectation in this game between Weber State and Oregon State. This is projected to be a game that might be lucky to make it into the high 60s, even with teams generally playing a bit faster early in the year.
But, it’s not the total that I’m looking at, it’s Weber State as an underdog. The pace does play a factor here and I’ll get to that in a second. Most mid and low-majors lost all kinds of talent via the transfer portal this offseason. Weber State really didn’t, as leading scorer Dillon Jones is gone, and so is second-leading scorer Steven Verplancken. However, four of the next five leading scorers stuck around, leaving Weber State with a lot of continuity. Plus, Finland’s Viljami Vartiainen had 17 points in 13 minutes in the opener against lower-division Northwest Indian and he’s a potential breakout guy.
Eric Duft’s team ranked 61st in eFG% offense last season. They were objectively bad on defense, but I don’t like Oregon State’s offensive strategy. The Beavers were 343rd in shot share on Close Twos last season and 294th in 2023. They don’t get to the rim a lot. They settle on a lot of jump shots and have some inefficient shooters. Michael Rataj shot 29% from 3 last season and is a regression candidate on 2s. Demarco Minor was a very inefficient scorer at SIU Edwardsville with a 42% mark on 2s and a 31% mark on 3s. Parsa Fallah from Southern Utah might be a good inside scorer, but Southern Utah got to the rim way more often than Oregon State.
Maybe the Beavers are changing their philosophy, as they were 20-of-26 at the rim against Utah Tech, but I’ll pay to see it, especially in a game where possessions will be very valuable.
Pick: Weber State +6
