College basketball best bets today

I am not an athletic director, nor am I a conference commissioner, but if I was, you better believe I’d try to schedule my team in a huge game on the Monday after the Super Bowl. College basketball seems to be missing an opportunity here with just four games on the main board and then a bunch of games on the added board from the SWAC, MEAC, Patriot, and Southland.

It is an underwhelming card to say the least on the day after the football season ends. But, there are still college basketball best bets today and this will be a sport in the spotlight moving forward.

 

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Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.

Here is one college basketball best bet for today.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Lamar Cardinals (-5.5, 153) at Incarnate Word Cardinals

7:30 p.m.

When I picked this game on January 8, I’m pretty sure I said the same thing I’m about to say now…the Cardinals are guaranteed to win this game. In that first meeting, I did back Lamar and the favorite did win in runaway fashion with a 75-59 triumph. Lamar was a seven-point favorite in that one and is a 5.5-point favorite here, so we have seen a mild adjustment to both teams since then given the home-court flip.

I still think Lamar is the play here. Lamar ranks second in Southland play in adjusted offensive efficiency, 3P%, 2P%, and eFG% defense. They are the top defense in the conference on 2-point shots. They also lead the conference in FT%, which is always important when a favorite is lined in this range.

Incarnate Word ranks eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency and ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are the worst 3-point defense in the league and rank among the worst 3-point offenses, which is a problem when they shoot a 3 on 39.1% of shot attempts.

But, here’s the biggest part of this handicap to me. Incarnate Word’s 22.6% TO% is the highest in the conference in league action. Lamar’s 20.5% TO% on defense is third. Also, IWU doesn’t force turnovers, so they’re losing a lot of possessions with giveaways and bad shots.

Incarnate Word has also been missing Shon Robinson, who had 16 and 10 in the first Lamar game over just 23 minutes. He missed the next three games and has scored just 11 points in five games since coming back from injury. He’s played five total minutes in the last two games.

Lamar’s road struggles are a mild concern, but this is a really good matchup for them.

Pick: Lamar -5.5

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