College Basketball Best Bets Today:

Super Bowl Week has arrived and excitement about the game is starting to rise. But, as you’re thinking about props and parlays for the Big Game, don’t forget about all of the other betting opportunities that we have to consider for this week. That includes college basketball, as we start with a modest number of games to get things going. There are only six games on the main board, as 15 games come from the Patriot, Southland, SWAC, and MEAC for today.

Iowa State vs. Kansas is the clear headliner this evening, but we do have a banger in the AAC between North Texas and UAB and a good one in the CAA between Charleston and William & Mary featuring mid-major hopefuls with a great shot at making it to March.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Alabama State Hornets (-1.5, 144) at Florida A&M Rattlers

7 p.m. ET

Down to the SWAC we go for this matchup between Alabama State and Florida A&M. Both of these teams played pretty tough non-conference slates, as Torvik has Alabama State down for the 43rd-ranked non-conference schedule and Florida A&M at 21, even with two games against lower-division foes.

Recently, Florida A&M has been on a run under first-year head coach Patrick Crarey II. The 41-year-old Crarey was the head coach and associate athletic director at St. Thomas in the NAIA ranks and was hired by Florida A&M in April. His Rattlers boast the top adjusted offensive efficiency in conference play, including a strong 36.9% 3P%.

Alabama State ranks ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are ranked fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency, but that’s not because of their ability to make shots. It’s simply because they have the best TO% in the conference. They’re actually ninth in eFG%, while Florida A&M is tops in the league.

The Rattlers have scored 1.165, 1.224, 1.042, .998, and 1.381 PPP during their five-game winning streak and I think they can keep it up tonight.

Pick: Florida A&M +1.5

Alcorn State Braves at Grambling State Tigers (-4.5, 129)

9 p.m. ET

Another one from the SWAC, as Alcorn State heads to Grambling to take on the Tigers. Both of these teams have really poor numbers across the board as a result of brutal non-conference schedules. But, there are some conference-only metrics that point me one way in this game.

For what it’s worth, and the SWAC is not littered with good teams, Alcorn State has played the hardest conference strength of schedule thus far per Torvik. Grambling is second, but Alcorn State ranks fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency with that schedule. Grambling is 10th on offense and sixth on defense. Alcorn State is also a vastly better offensive rebounding team.

The Braves have been pretty poor about taking care of the basketball, but they did have two outlier performances with TO% over 30% that have skewed the numbers a bit. I think that should normalize a little as we keep going, especially given that they had a lower TO% against a top-10 non-conference strength of schedule than they do now in league play.

I like Alcorn State getting a 4.5-point head start when I think they’re a little bit better than Grambling and it’s not like home-court advantage is a huge deal in this conference.

Pick: Alcorn State +4.5

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