College Basketball Best Bets Today:

We ease into this week of college basketball with 16 games on the Monday card. Most of the games aren’t going to get front page headlines either. But, it’s okay because students are back in school, home-court advantage is climbing again, and we’ll have 35 games on Tuesday and 49 games on Wednesday, so we’ll have no shortage of action to wager on.

It is that time of the year when a lot of people are transitioning over to college hoops because they need something to bet. There are only three more college football games, the NFL is into the playoffs, and the NBA doesn’t have the amount of volume as CBB. Make sure you do your research into the teams and don’t take anything for granted assuming the blue bloods are great and the doormats are not.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Wisconsin Badgers (-1.5, 157) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

7 p.m. ET

Everything seems to suggest that lottery pick Dylan Harper will be back on the floor for Rutgers tonight, but they may need a lot more than that against Wisconsin. Rutgers is 0-4 in four tries in Quadrant I games per Torvik and 2-5 against Top 150 teams per Haslametrics. Haslametrics actually has Wisconsin winning this one by nine points. Torvik has a five-point decision.

The Badgers are one of the nation’s top offensive teams with great balance on 2s and 3s, coming in 66th in 2P% and 86th in 3P%. Add that to their strength of schedule and a low TO% and they are ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency per Torvik. They’ve done an outstanding job of converting free throw attempts into points with an 85.3% success rate at the stripe. That could be an important factor late in the game.

Wisconsin also does a great job keeping teams away from the rim with a 27.7% shot share on Close Twos. Rutgers is a decent jump-shooting team, but Harper’s best attribute is getting to the rim, where he’s a 76.4% shooter on Close Twos. I think the Badger defense has the chance to keep him in check. 

Wisconsin is also the better rebounding team of the two. And I just generally think Greg Gard is a better head coach than Steve Pikiell. Pikiell’s teams have often been offensively-challenged, but stout on defense. Since taking over at Rutgers in 2017, he hasn’t had a defense worse than 72nd in Torvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. This year’s ranks 138th. A Wisconsin team that just dropped 116 points on Iowa should be able to keep up a high rate of success.

The only Badgers losses have been Michigan, Marquette, and Illinois – all consensus top-15 teams. Rutgers is not one of those.

Pick: Wisconsin -1.5

Houston Christian Huskies at Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (-8.5, 130)

7:30 p.m. ET

It is not a pretty CBB slate with lots of Southland and SWAC action on the board. Most of these teams play brutal non-conference schedules so they can afford to keep the lights on within the athletic department, so you often get some pretty ugly statistics. That isn’t really the case for these two teams, as HCU has played some top-caliber teams, while SFA really hasn’t.

Instead, I think we can look at this game in a vacuum and just look at the strengths and weaknesses for both sides. Even though this line has moved down due to a few factors I will touch on, I think the Lumberjacks are the play. First, we have what is likely to be a slow-paced game with a big spread. That usually lends itself towards money on the underdog. Also, SFA is shooting 23.6% from 3, which ranks last in the nation. In fact, they are 11-for-89 (12.4%) from 3 in their last five games against Division I opponents.

To be honest, there’s nowhere to go but up from there. This is also a team shooting just 52.1% on Close Twos with a 49.2% shot share on those shots. They are sixth in shot share and 326th in FG%. Again, another area where there has to be some positive regression. They are 10th in the nation per Torvik in ORB%, so they’re getting back a good rate of all these misses.

Houston Christian has allowed a 43.7% shot share on Close Twos, which is 323rd and they are 356th in FG% against at 68.6%. If SFA can’t score on the interior against these guys, it may be a lost cause. The Huskies are a bad rebounding team on both ends of the floor. They’re also only shooting 27.7% from 3 themselves.

For all of SFA’s flaws, they are 35th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are 10th in 3P% defense and 41st in TO% on defense per Torvik, whose numbers take into account games against Division I foes only. They’ve had major issues taking care of the ball themselves, but HCU doesn’t force a ton of takeaways.

I see so many positive regression signs for the Lumberjacks and the right type of matchup for them to happen.

Pick: Stephen F. Austin -8.5

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