College Basketball Best Bets Today:

The college basketball regular season has officially finished, as all we have left are conference tournaments and then the postseason tournaments, including the NCAA Tournament. More automatic bids will be decided tonight in the Sun Belt and SoCon, while we have a total of just 12 games.

The Big Five – ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC – conferences get started this week. Check out our list of conference tournament previews so that you can get all the latest info.

 

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As for this week, pickings will be a little bit slim with limited games, a lot of afternoon starts, and probably less lead time for the article as a result. Late line postings will be a problem for some games as well because teams are playing back-to-backs. I’ll do the best I can with the article, as I’ll also begin work on our March Mania Betting Guide, which will be released on Tuesday March 18.

Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Charleston Cougars vs. UNC Wilmington Seahawks (-3.5, 146.5)

8:30 p.m. ET

UNC Wilmington swept the regular season against Charleston and a win here would mean the opportunity to play for the automatic bid in the CAA. The Cougars had a tough one last night, as they needed overtime to knock off Monmouth, while the Seahawks coasted with nearly a wire-to-wire win over Hampton. UNC Wilmington trailed by one two minutes into the game. They never trailed again.

Charleston was forced to play big man Ante Brzovic for 41 of the 45 minutes in the overtime victory. Now he has to come back and deal with 7-footer Harlan Obioha and a Seahawks defense that does a great job of forcing teams away from the rim. Their 32.4% shot share against on Close Twos ranks 31st in the nation. A fatigued Brzovic is going to have to really work for his buckets in this one.

Wilmington won the first game by two on the road and won the second game by 20 at home. The Seahawks were first in adjusted offensive efficiency, including a 36.8% 3P%. Charleston was fourth on offense. They were a better defense from an efficiency standpoint, but that is a bit misleading, as they were eighth in 2P% and sixth in 3P% defense. They were boosted by fouling at the lowest rate in the conference.

The Seahawks already had an edge on the glass, but I’d expect a bigger one here given their fresher legs. They also have an 88% free throw shooter in Donovan Newby to help them put the game away if they’re in that position.

Pick: UNC Wilmington -3.5

Idaho Vandals vs. Portland State Vikings (-4.5, 142.5)

10 p.m. ET

It sure looks to me like Idaho caught a bad matchup in the Quarterfinals of the Big Sky Tournament. Portland State won the two regular season meetings 75-63 and 76-69 and things could have been much worse. Idaho chucks a lot of 3s. Their 3P Rate on the season is 47.7% and they do shoot them pretty well, firing away at 35.2%. But, Jase Coburn’s Vikings were the top 3P% defense in the conference, holding opponents to just 27.4%.

In fact, Portland State was far and away the best defensive team in the conference by the efficiency metrics, TO%, and 3P%. That’s a bad fit for Idaho, whose 3P% in league play was 34.1%. I’m actually really surprised that Idaho didn’t grade lower in Haslametrics’ Away From Home metric with all of those long jumpers.

Portland State had 70 shot attempts at the rim in the two games against Idaho. They were 27-of-42 on 2s in the first game and 24-of-44 on 2s in the second game, where they had 38 shot attempts at the rim. Honestly, they left some points on the floor in that game, as they also missed 13 of 32 free throw attempts.

Idaho Central Arena isn’t an unfamiliar venue, since it has been the home of this conference tournament for a while, but I’m always skeptical of teams that take a lot of 3s heading to a neutral setting. I’d much prefer the team that gets to the rim against a defense allowing a 60.8% FG% on Close Twos and one that allows opponents to shoot a conference-worst 55.8% on 2-pointers.

Pick: Portland State -4.5

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