College basketball best bets today

The college basketball regular season has officially ended. All 14 games on the betting board today are conference tournament games. With the exception of the West Coast Conference, where Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga will both be making the NCAA Tournament, these are a lot of one-bid leagues in action.

Conference tourneys have featured some shocking results to this point, so this period is off to a great start and the major conferences get going this week. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN.com for all the conference tournament previews and also for college basketball best bets today.

 

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Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.

Here are two college basketball best bets for today.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. James Madison Dukes (-5.5, 150)

7 p.m. ET

The Sun Belt Championship Game features Arkansas State and James Madison, as the Red Wolves look to ride the wave of last night’s last-second win over Appalachian State. James Madison might be happy to see Arkansas State here, as they have three losses on the season and two of them were against the Mountaineers.

JMU won 77-73 over Arky State back on Feb. 7 as a 4.5-point favorite. I realize that Arkansas State is playing really well right now and looks to be writing a special story, but that was -4.5 at Arkansas State and now James Madison is only laying 5.5 on a neutral? This line seems off to me. You could make an argument that the Red Wolves are simply playing better now than they were then, but James Madison has done nothing wrong since that point.

As far as this matchup itself, James Madison is top-50 in both TO% offense and defense, while Arkansas State is 114th in TO% on offense and 329th in TO% on defense. The Red Wolves are likely to lose some possessions in the TO department. I also don’t think they find nearly as much rebounding success as they’ve found in the first two games of the tourney with 29 ORebs thus far. Each team had 12 in the first meeting.

The Dukes are a top-five defense against the 3 and a top-70 offense shooting it. They also have a lower shot share against on Close Twos per Bart Torvik. While they are shooting just 70.5% at the free throw line, they have two guys shooting 81.7% and 85.4%, respectively, who will have the ball in their hands late in the game if it comes down to making free throws.

I like this matchup for them and think they get it done here with a win and cover to lock down the Sun Belt bid.

Pick: James Madison -5.5

Texas A&M Commerce Lions vs. Nicholls State Colonels (-5, 136)

8:30 p.m. ET

Texas A&M Commerce will have a little more familiarity with the Legacy Center in Lake Charles, LA tonight after beating Northwestern State last night, but I think that’s where the advantages stop for the Lions. Nicholls swept the season series, though one of the games did go to double overtime. The second, and most recent game, was a 15-point win for Nicholls.

This is just a straightforward statistical handicap for me. Texas A&M Commerce has a 34.9% shot share on Close Twos and has allowed a 49.6% shot share. That is the highest Close Two shot share against in the nation. Nicholls has a 40.1% shot share on Close Twos and has allowed a 41.3% mark, which is on the high side, but not worst in the nation high.

The Lions shoot a ton of 3s, but they aren’t good at it. At all. They have a 46% 3P Rate with a 29.6% success rate. They shot 29.3% from 3 in road games in Southland Conference play. Nicholls shot over 35% from deep in road conference games and 37.3% overall.

Nicholls had 52 shot attempts at the rim in the two head-to-head meetings compared to 38 for Texas A&M Commerce. In a neutral setting, I think that’s a highly relevant statistic.

Pick: Nicholls -5

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