College Basketball Best Bets Today:

We got 99 college basketball games on the Saturday slate, which is a good example of what we’ll be contending with just about every Saturday going forward. Usually we’ll hit triple digits, especially when conference play is in full swing for everybody. These are busy days and there are a lot of games to pick from as you dig in with that handicapping process.

I’m getting a later start on the article this morning, so I’m only looking at games that start 5 p.m. ET or later in the interest of providing enough lead time. That still gives us plenty of options, but does really cut the card down.

 

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We have a ton of content rolling in here at VSiN on a daily basis, so you may want to bookmark our College Basketball Articles page so you can find this and also Greg Peterson’s top CBB bets of the day.

Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Denver Pioneers at Portland State Vikings (-8.5, 153)

5 p.m. ET

I didn’t want to use a game this early given that the article got up late, but I’m really not finding a ton on the late slate that I like. This one between Denver and Portland State should be an up-tempo game, as the Vikings are 49th in adjusted tempo per Torvik and the Pioneers are 131st, likely leaving us a game around 70 or so possessions.

Portland State has really struggled badly on the defensive end this season, but all of their weaknesses are areas where Denver does not thrive. Portland State is really bad on the defensive glass, but Denver is 298th in ORB% according to Torvik. Portland State’s rim protection is shoddy, but the Pioneers haven’t gotten to the tin, posting a 29.8% shot share on Close Twos, which is among the worst in the nation. Opponents are shooting 43.8% from 3 on Portland State, but Denver is shooting 30% on 3s.

Meanwhile, Portland State is an excellent offensive rebounding team and they get to the rim a ton, posting a 48.6% shot share on Close Twos. They are not reliant on 3s, which is good because opponents are shooting just 25.6% from 3 on Denver, but that’s also an encouraging sign. Denver is 305th in adjusted defensive efficiency while boasting the eighth-best 3P% defense, a clear area of regression for them.

Lastly, Portland State is bad on defense because they are super aggressive with trying to force turnovers and sometimes it leads to blind spots. They have a 20.6% TO%. Denver has not valued possessions this season, posting a 19.3% TO%.

I think the Vikings get extra possessions via turnovers and offensive rebounds and can put some distance in this game as a result, especially with a Denver team very likely to be in foul trouble.

Pick: Portland State -8.5

Eastern Washington Eagles at South Dakota State Jackrabbits (-10, 154.5)

7 p.m. ET

Eastern Washington and South Dakota State battle as we’ve got a Big Sky vs. Summit League challenge this weekend. This should be a high-scoring affair in Brookings.

Eastern Washington under first-year head coach Dan Monson has done a really good job of getting to the rim. They’ve got a 44.5% shot share on Close Twos and that’s something that a lot of Summit League defenses don’t see. That conference is very jump shot-oriented, so I don’t think those coaches really prioritize rim protection defense in a traditional sense. That should help Monson and his team.

Plus, they’ll want to speed the game up because that’s the style Long Beach State always played under Monson’s system. I think South Dakota State will be fine with that because they are perennially a really good offensive club under Eric Henderson. The Eagles are terrible on defense, as they rank 339th in ORB% against, 313th in 2P% defense, and 358th in 3P% defense.

On the whole, outside of a 20.7% TO%, EWU gives up a ton of points and ranks 357th in eFG%. South Dakota State should make a lot of shots in this game and will play at a tempo that is elevated from what they usually play at. I think EWU gets their points as well.

Shop around here, as the DraftKings odds I’ve cited are a point higher than the rest of the market.

Pick: Over 154.5

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