College Basketball Best Bets Today:

If you’ve ever wondered what 146 games in the same sport on the same day look like, well, that’s your college basketball Saturday. We’ll see 292 of the 364 Division I teams take to the floor, with tip times ranging from Noon ET all the way until Midnight ET out in Honolulu.

These types of days can be really overwhelming, but the great resources linked below, my article, Greg Peterson’s article, and Tyler Shoemaker’s T Shoe Index projections on X are all great ways to narrow your focus on the card and find some action for the day’s loaded card.

 

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As usual, I’m only looking at games that start 4 p.m. ET or later thanks to the lead time of the article. If you want earlier action on Saturday’s, Greg’s article is posted the night before so you can check that out.

Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders (-3, 152.5) at UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros

5:30 p.m. ET

We start down in the Southland Conference with a rematch between Texas A&M Corpus Christi and UT Rio Grande Valley. TAMU CC won the first game by five at home back on Jan. 11. The Islanders led by as many as 17 early in the second half, but let the Vaqueros back in the game.

Hopefully this one starts the same and they don’t do that this time. TAMU CC also gets a bit of help here that Hasan Abdul Hakim, UTRGV’s leading scorer and rebounder was dismissed from the team a couple weeks ago after violating team policy. Hakim had 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 blocks in the first meeting.

His absence is particularly noticeable against a team like the Islanders because they have a 46.8% shot share on Close Twos, which ranks in the top 15 nationally. UTRGV, meanwhile, has a shot share on Close Twos of just 35.3% and Hakim was a 66% finisher on those types of shot attempts.

In the first meeting, due in part to Hakim’s rim protection, TAMU CC was only 12-of-24 on Close Twos. Furthermore, UTRGV, a 29.9% 3-point shooting team for the season, was 10-of-28 from beyond the arc. I’d expect regression in both categories in the rematch, which should bode well for the Islanders.

Pick: Texas A&M Corpus Christi -3

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Houston Cougars (-10, 127)

6 p.m. ET

This is a pretty simple handicap for me, as I’m going to trust Grant McCasland in a rock fight. He had plenty of those at North Texas and knows how to navigate a super slow tempo and a defensive battle. Obviously Kelvin Sampson does too, but he’s not getting a 10-point head start in a game with a total of 127.

I have a ton of concerns about Houston offensively. Let’s start with their anemic 25.4% shot share on Close Twos. They settle for a lot of tough mid-range jumpers and have been able to knock down a lot of 3s. Texas Tech defends both of those areas well and also gets to the rim at a higher rate themselves.

In a physical game likely to feature a lot of whistles, the Red Raiders are clearly the better free throw shooting team, which I find to be a positive here as well. Texas Tech is actually a top-40 FT% team against Division I opponents this season. Houston is outside the top 125. It hasn’t been a huge problem yet because of how suffocating their defense is, but it’s another reason why I’m skeptical of them come tournament time.

Houston is also a really good bully, which skews their metrics. Per Haslametrics’ “Paper Tiger Factor”, which is a measure of how teams perform relative to expectation vs. superior or inferior competition, Houston has the ninth-highest negative value, meaning they beat up on teams they should, but better teams give them a run. After all, they are just 1-2 in Quadrant 1-A games per Torvik and 3-3 in Quadrant 1 games.

Pick: Texas Tech +10

Stanford Cardinal at SMU Mustangs (-6, 149)

6 p.m. ET

ACC action between Stanford and SMU is also part of my card for tonight. It’s still weird as hell to call this an ACC game with Stanford involved. And SMU. And realignment is still throwing me off.

But, there are a lot of things in play here. I’ve talked about this before and I’ve picked on SMU a little bit with this angle, but I’m looking to fade them against the ACC’s top-tier teams. They’ve played well against comparable or inferior competition. Their only league losses are Duke, North Carolina, and Louisville and those are top-50 teams. One is a legitimate National Championship contender.

I would not consider Stanford a top-50 team, though Kyle Smith’s club is playing well. The road win over North Carolina was super impressive, but I do want to throw some cold water on their recent wins. We’ve seen the long travel be a major factor already in the ACC and Big Ten and the Cardinal beat Miami, Florida State, and Syracuse at home before heading from Palo Alto to Dallas. Not exactly a murderer’s row.

Stanford ranks 343rd in Haslametrics’ Away From Home rating. All three ACC losses are on the road with long travel and have been by 14, 15, and 13 points. SMU is a team that packs the paint really well and keeps teams from getting high-percentage shot attempts. That means we’re going to see a lot of jumpers in an unfamiliar setting for Stanford. The Mustangs are a top-25 3P% team on offense and a top-20 2P% team on defense.

The stats and the home/road splits point me in the direction of SMU here.

Pick: SMU -6

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