College Basketball Best Bets Today:

It is one of those extremely packed college basketball Saturdays and that means that there are a lot of betting opportunities available. On a day where we don’t have much else to bet, it means that we can dedicate a lot of time to digging into hoops. And that’s good because there are 146 Division I games on the docket.

As usual, with the lead time required for the article and my PT start time, I’m only looking at games that start at 5 p.m. ET or later. If you’re looking for earlier plays, my colleague Greg Peterson is usually on top of that and he’s posting the night before, so you can get a head start on the day and attempt to get the best of the number possible.

 

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Here are the games that caught my eye for February 14.

Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Alcorn State Braves at Bethune Cookman Wildcats (-5.5, 135.5)

5:30 p.m. ET

The 0-14 start to the season for Alcorn State definitely soured some people on the Braves, but they have been playing a lot better since jumping into SWAC play. The Braves are 7-4 in league play, but they’ve got the second-best adjusted defensive efficiency in those games. Opponents are only shooting 27.6% from 3 against them and that makes them a pretty good underdog bet because it’s hard for them to get blown out.

Bethune Cookman is off to a solid 8-3 start, but one of their three losses came against Alcorn State by nine points back on Jan. 27. In that game, Alcorn State actually led by 12 with less than five minutes left and wound up salting the game away. The Braves were also able to win by nine, even though they were just 4-of-20 from 3, as both teams struggled badly to shoot.

One of Alcorn’s biggest weaknesses this season has been taking care of the basketball, but Bethune Cookman doesn’t force a lot of turnovers. Another reason why I think the Braves can keep it close getting points in this matchup.

Pick: Alcorn State +5.5

Fordham Rams at Richmond Spiders (-1.5, 138.5)

6 p.m. ET

A little A-10 action between Fordham and Richmond caught my attention, as the Rams might have a pretty good matchup in this contest. Fordham’s allowed a ton of shot attempts at the rim this season. They have allowed a 48% shot share on Close Twos, which is the fourth-highest mark in the nation, better than only North Florida, East Texas A&M, and Prairie View A&M. Opponents are shooting 56.6% on those shot attempts.

But, Richmond is not a team that gets to the rim a lot. This is a very jump shot-oriented offense, as the Spiders have a 46.6% 3P Rate, but they’re only shooting 30.7% from beyond the arc. Fordham’s 3P% defense ranks in the 300s nationally, but Richmond isn’t really any better defensively in that department. However, Fordham is a more efficient 3-point shooting team at 33.2%.

Another shortcoming for Fordham this season has been turning the ball over, but Richmond doesn’t force a lot of takeaways. In conference play, Richmond has the slightly better defense, but the Spiders still grade below average in 12th out of 15 teams in adjusted defensive efficiency. Fordham is 15th, but a lot of that has to do with how teams get to the rim against them. That’s way less of a concern against Richmond.

Pick: Fordham +1.5

Akron Zips (-4.5, 155.5) at Central Michigan Chippewas

7 p.m. ET

To the Mid-American Conference we go, where Akron takes on Central Michigan. The Zips won the first meeting by 16. This is a change of venue, but I still feel like this one is going to go Akron’s way and could go Akron’s way by margin again.

Let’s start with Akron’s offense against Central Michigan’s defense. The Chippewas are a very poor defense at the rim. They have allowed opponents to shoot 64.9% on Close Twos as defined by Torvik this season. For what it’s worth, Akron’s defense has limited opponents to a 53.9% FG% on those types of shots.

Second, Akron is shooting over 37% on 3s and Central Michigan has allowed opponents to shoot 35.6%. Similarly, their 3P% on offense is drastically lower than Akron’s, so I think it’ll be tough for them to keep pace.

If we look at conference-only metrics, not much has changed. The Chips have the worst 3P% defense in the conference and Akron is second in 3P% on offense. Akron is also shooting over 62% on 2-pointers.

The Zips do grade poorly in Haslametrics’ Away From Home metric, but they’re 5-0 in conference road games and rank second in both 2P% and 3P%, so a lot of that has to do with what they did in non-conference games.

Pick: Akron -4.5

Troy Trojans at Arkansas State Red Wolves (-6.5, 144.5)

8 p.m. ET

Troy and Arkansas State come together for some Fun Belt action on Saturday night. And the first game was a whole lot of fun. Arkansas State came away with the road victory in a game that finished with 162 points. I’m expecting a high-scoring affair in this one as well, as we have two teams that love to get to the rim and the potential for a lot of attempts at the free throw line.

The first meeting was back on Jan. 11 and featured 50 shot attempts at the rim and only six mid-range jumper attempts. The teams also combined to take 48 3-pointers in the contest. And they also had 55 free throw attempts, accounting for 43 points. I would expect that we see a pretty similar type of shot distribution in this game and also a bevy of free throws.

There were also 19 offensive rebounds in the game. Honestly that feels a little light to me, given that Troy ranks fourth in the nation in ORB%. I would expect that the Trojans get a few more ORebs here, which could lead to even more attempts at the stripe.

Pick: Over 144.5

South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators (-13.5, 143.5)

8 p.m. ET

The Gamecocks are winless in conference play, but they did get very close to beating Florida the first time around. They’ll head to Gainesville with a little bit of confidence off of that performance in all likelihood, but that’s not why I think they’ll cover the number in this game.

Florida is dealing with a lot right now. Alijah Martin is probable for the game, so that’s one of the reasons why we’ve seen this line move in Florida’s favor. However, Alex Condon (10.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG) won’t be in the lineup for the Gators. Neither will rotation player Sam Alexis.

Florida will, however, welcome back big man Micah Handlogten. I’m sure he’ll be on a pitch count so to speak, but Todd Golden will want his team to work him back into the mix. I think that could upset the chemistry temporarily. It takes a good amount of efficiency to cover a number of this magnitude. For all of South Carolina’s issues, they are a top-50 team by adjusted defensive efficiency and have competed admirably in that department in league play.

They’re also really committed to getting defensive rebounds, so unless Florida is going to shoot at a super high percentage from the field, I could see the Gamecocks staying around for a bit here.

Pick: South Carolina +13.5

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