College Basketball Best Bets Today:

There are 364 Division I college basketball teams and 295 of them will be on the floor today. There are 147 games between Division I opponents and Delaware State takes on a lower-division opponent. To say that today is a busy college basketball day is a true understatement. Most eyes and ears will be focused on the NFL games, but basketball bettors are in their glory today.

Greg Peterson tackled several of the early-afternoon games. I’ll be doing what I always do with the Saturday article and focus on games that start at 4 p.m. ET or later due to my Pacific Time morning start to give readers as much lead time as possible. Fortunately, I have a ton of games at my disposal in that window.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-2, 147.5) at Kennesaw State Owls

5 p.m. ET

The future is now for Kennesaw State, as three freshmen are playing huge minutes for Antoine Pettway’s squad. But that can lead to a lot of inconsistency on both ends of the floor and that’s what we’ve seen from the Owls lately. They’ve scored .892 and .935 points per possession in their last two outings, going a combined 11-for-67 from 3. I’m not sure things get a whole lot better against a Louisiana Tech team holding opponents to just 30.5% from 3.

It’s been a rough shooting season for the Owls in general, firing away at just 29.1% on triple tries. This is a team that ranks 293rd in eFG% and has paired those poor shooting numbers with a 20.5% TO%.

The Bulldogs are a little bit careless with the basketball as well, but they’re shooting substantially better. LA Tech is a top-40 team in 2P% per Torvik and sits a good bit above the national average (33.5%) from 3 at 34.2%. This game will be a little bit of a pace war, as Kennesaw State wants to run and Louisiana Tech does not, but more possessions for a better offense can’t be a bad thing.

The other element I like here about the Bulldogs is that they are shooting 75.6% at the free throw line and Kennesaw State ranks 340th in FT Rate against. For a team that ranks 312th in TO% on defense to foul that much is a bad sign, especially against a team that can make them pay.

Pick: Louisiana Tech -2

New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty Flames (-6.5, 134.5)

7 p.m. ET

Another one from Conference USA caught my eye with this matchup between New Mexico State and Liberty. Jason Hooten’s team is on a real heater, as the Aggies have climbed 55 spots in the last seven days in Haslametrics’ rankings and 127 spots in the last 30 days. It seems like Hooten has figured out how to best leverage his transfer-laden roster and it is paying some serious dividends.

Let’s start on defense, where the Aggies have allowed 1.085, .790, .896, and .835 PPP in four conference games. This will be the biggest offensive test for them in league play, but they’re doing an excellent job of rotating and forcing tough shots. It should also be a decent game on the defensive glass for NMSU, as Liberty is 353rd in ORB% and has struggled even more without Isaiah Ihnen, who was lost on Dec. 21.

Offensively, the Aggies don’t have the shot-makers that Liberty has, but they are coming around. JUCO transfer Zawdie Jackson, Maine transfer Peter Filipovity, and Cal State Northridge transfer Dionte Bostick are three of the six players getting regular minutes on the roster. It took some time to gel, as Bostick and Filipovity didn’t play as much early in the season as they are now.

For the full year against D-I opponents, NMSU is shooting 33.9% on 3s and 48.4% on 2s, but they’re up to 34.2% and 51.1%, respectively, over the last 10 games and 36.6% and 56.1% in the four games against C-USA foes. They blew out UTEP last Saturday 85-57 in El Paso, a Miners team that just beat Liberty by a deuce on Thursday in Virginia.

This game should be played to a slow tempo, as the teams rank 297th (Liberty) and 270th (New Mexico State) in adjusted tempo. I think it’ll be hard for Liberty to create a lot of separation.

Pick: New Mexico State +6.5

UC San Diego Tritons (-9.5, 141) at UC Riverside Highlanders

8 p.m. ET

UC San Diego seemed ready to send a message on Thursday with a laugher against Long Beach State in their first game after losing to UC Irvine at home. Eric Olen’s team stepped up big with a 26-point road win over the Beach and now take on UC Riverside as a sizable favorite.

There is so much to like about this UCSD team. I don’t know if they can beat Irvine in the rematch or in the Big West Tournament, but both teams have the potential to be a very dangerous mid-major come March.

But, there are regular season things to take care of first and I think the Tritons take care of one here. This is one of the best turnover margin teams in the nation, ranking 19th in TO% on offense and 4th in TO% on defense. UC Riverside is 319th in TO% on defense, so I think the Tritons get the extra possessions in this tilt.

Also, the Tritons have forced opponents into a 3 on 46% of their shot attempts. Riverside is only shooting 31.6% from deep, which ranks 261st in the nation. Add that to their 46.3% 2P% that ranks 321st and I see a lot of empty possessions from the Highlanders here.

UCSD is 43rd in 2P% at 56.4% and above the national average by 1.1% in the 3P% department. I think it’ll be very hard for Riverside to keep pace here with their bad outside shooting, poor 2P%, and a shot share on Close Twos of just 28.5%. I think every possession is a struggle for them with this matchup.

For good measure, UC San Diego is the eighth-best team in Haslametrics’ Away From Home rating, so the road doesn’t bother them.

Pick: UC San Diego -9.5

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