College Basketball Best Bets Today:

Cherish today because this will be the last college basketball Saturday with over 100 games. As we get into conference tournaments, the card will be cut down significantly, but the games are going to dramatically increase in importance. So, it’s a little bit of a give and take type of thing once you get into the month of March.

It’s going to be a huge month for us with college basketball content. All 31 conference tournaments will be previewed, every NCAA Tournament game will be previewed, and our March Mania Betting Guide comes out on March 18. It’s going to be a massive month and you can join us for all of it as a VSiN Pro Subscriber.

 

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As for now, let’s look at some late games on the board to give the article some lead time.

Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Santa Clara Broncos (-13.5, 149.5) at Pacific Tigers

8 p.m. ET

Santa Clara has responded well to losses recently. After losing 67-54 to Saint Mary’s, they blew out Pacific 83-49 in a runaway at home on Feb. 1. After losing to Saint Mary’s again on Feb. 11, they bounced back with a 15-point win over Loyola Marymount.

Now Santa Clara comes in off an embarrassing 19-point home loss to Gonzaga and I think Herb Sendek’s team is going to want to put that as far in the rearview mirror as possible heading into the WCC Tournament. They’re laying a hefty road price here against Pacific, but it is deserved. The Broncos are No. 2 in the WCC in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They’re the top 3-point shooting team in the league at 40.1%.

Pacific is dead last in adjusted offensive efficiency and ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency. They have the second-highest TO% in the conference and have been beaten by double digits in all of their games against the top-50 ranked teams in this conference, plus a couple of blowouts against Oregon State.

I think Sendek wants to get rid of as many bad habits as possible and can use this final road game of the regular season as a tune-up for the trip to Vegas next weekend. Also, a win for Santa Clara would lock up the No. 4 seed and a bye to the Quarterfinals.

Pick: Santa Clara -13.5

Northern Colorado Bears (-3.5, 153.5) at Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

10 p.m. ET

To the Big Sky we go for Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona in Flagstaff. The first game between these two teams was a blowout win for the Bears by an 87-69 score. But, that doesn’t tell the entire story.

Northern Arizona was just 2-of-16 from 3 in the game, while Northern Colorado was 14-of-30. The Bears do grade really well in Haslametrics’ Momentum metric and are on the plus side in the “Away From Home” metric. Northern Arizona has clearly been a better home team this season, as they’ve struggled on the road.

In the first game, NAU had 37 shot attempts at the rim to go along with 13 offensive rebounds. The game only featured 14 total turnovers. Northern Colorado also had 20 shot attempts at the rim. Collectively, there were only 15 mid-range jumpers. That is some ideal shot selection from both sides.

I don’t expect NAU to go 2-of-16 from 3 at home in this one. The first game went Over this total, despite that awful shooting performance. I don’t see anything changing regarding NAU’s ability on the offensive glass or ability to get to the rim on the Bears defense. We should see a lot of points in this one.

Pick: Over 153.5

Long Beach State Beach at UC Irvine Anteaters (-16.5, 136.5)

10 p.m. ET

We’ve got a Big West late game to think about here between Long Beach State and UC Irvine. The first game between these two was very close for comfort for the Anteaters, who won 80-75 in overtime and trailed by seven with under three minutes to go. Now the venue flips, as they’ll welcome The Beach to Irvine.

But, I think this one could be a little bit closer for comfort as well. Long Beach State is in the midst of a very rough season in the first year under Chris Acker after Dan Monson was fired late last season. But, the Beach have played 11 games decided by six or fewer points and several in conference play, including losses to Irvine, Northridge, Hawaii, UC Santa Barbara, and their last game against Cal State Bakersfield.

They play at a really slow tempo and they’re able to “ugly up” the game enough to make the scores look pretty competitive. This team doesn’t have a bad record from lack of effort and two measuring stick games this week against Irvine and UC San Diego will be real tests of will. 

Long Beach State is shooting 37.3% from 3 in Big West play and that has helped them keep some games close. UC Irvine doesn’t force a ton of turnovers, as their half-court defense is excellent, but Long Beach also kept them away from the rim in the first meeting. The Beach was 12-of-23 on Close Twos, while UC Irvine was just 6-of-14.

I think it’ll be tough to blow out The Beach without getting to the rim. Keep in mind, UC Irvine was also 11-of-20 from 3 in the first game and 55% is a lot higher than their season average of 35.5% in league play.

Pick: Long Beach State +16.5

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