College Basketball Best Bets Today:
We only have 22 games on conference championship Saturday, which is a huge departure from the Saturdays that we’ve seen over the last several months. But, every single game has massive implications, so it may be light on volume, but it is very heavy on significance. I’m looking forward to following all of today’s action, which does include a lot of day games.
As always, lead time is important to me, so while we have 22 games in total, only 11 of them were under consideration for today’s best bets article.
Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.
This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Boise State Broncos (-1, 137.5) vs. Colorado State Rams
6 p.m. ET
Two very evenly-matched squads come together in the Mountain West Championship Game, as Boise State and Colorado State meet for the automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. Both teams are in very fine form, but I think one team is in slightly better form and also has some advantages in this game.
That team is Colorado State. I backed the Rams as a road dog against Boise on March 7 in the regular season finale and they won by 10, racking up 1.303 points per possession in that contest. The Rams have been on fire offensively for a while now and just had 1.240 PPP against Utah State in yesterday’s 83-72 win as they kept rolling right along. Since mid-February, opponents are only shooting 26.9% from 3 against the Rams, a span of nine games.
Boise State is winning games in spite of some poor shooting, as they are shooting 28.5% from 3 in that span, including 25.3% over their last five games. That includes an 18-of-67 performance thus far in this tournament.
In conference play, Colorado State ranks second in adjusted offensive efficiency and third in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Boise State is third and fifth, respectively. But, it’s the big 3-point difference that I’m looking at here, as Colorado State shot 38.8% from 3 during the regular season portion of conference play and held opponents to 33.5%, while Boise State shot just 32% from 3 and opponents canned 36.1% of their triple tries.
Colorado State is 16-of-37 in the conference tourney thus far. They also finished the regular season shooting 81% from the free throw line in league play. In Haslametrics’ Momentum metric, the Rams are the hottest team in the country and I think they finish the job here.
Pick: Colorado State +1
Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers vs. Iona Gaels (-4.5, 132.5)
7:30 pm. ET
Mount St. Mary’s and Iona meet in a 6 vs. 4 matchup to decide the lone NCAA Tournament bid in the MAAC. MSM is a surprise contender in the finals here, especially with some significant injury issues. Their top two players by Bart Torvik’s Adjusted PORPAGATU! (Points Over Replacement Player At That Usage), Carmelo Pacheco and Terrell Ard Jr., are out. Pacheco broke his finger in the regular season finale against Marist and Ard is out for the season. Dallas Hobbs also hobbled back to the locker room in the MAAC Tournament opener against Marist, but he’s been able to play through it.
The Mountaineers have played two rock fights so far, beating Marist 62-58 and Merrimack 57-55. In this game, they get an Iona team playing at a very high level offensively. Head coach Tobin Anderson seems to have his rotations and tweaks down pat now, as DeJour Reaves, Adam Njie Jr., and Yaphet Moundi are all playing at extremely high levels.
The Gaels got a scare from Quinnipiac and actually trailed late in yesterday’s win, but they won despite a 2-of-10 performance from 3. With a deeper roster, Anderson has been able to spread the minutes out more than Donny Lind has over the last two days.
Pacheco is a 46.6% 3-point shooter and far and away the most efficient player in that regard for the Mountaineers. Without him, they’ve been lucky to go 16-of-48 in this tournament and that’s still just 33.3%. They’re just 21-of-56 on 2-point shots.
Iona’s FT% might be a concern, and if Lind decides to hack-a-Shaq with Moundi, who is a 51.5% FT shooter, this could get interesting. But, Reaves, Justin Menard, and Kernan Bundy are all over 81% and Njie is a 77% guy at the stripe. They have enough guys to make free throws if need be.
I don’t believe Mount St. Mary’s can keep up with Iona’s current offensive form given their injuries. I’ll grade this at 4.5 because that’s what DraftKings has (albeit at -105), but most of the market is -4.
Pick: Iona -4.5
