College basketball best bets today

Every game on the card has great importance today, as we’ve either reached the semifinals or the championship game in all of the remaining conference tournaments. There are 23 games in total today and 12 of them are for a conference tournament title. It should be an excellent day of basketball, as we have just one day until Selection Sunday.

Even though Tyler Shoemaker is enjoying some R&R with family, he sent me over a tool to put together his projections, so I tweeted out today’s men’s CBB projections and women’s CBB projections.

 

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It’s been a tough month of March with the college basketball best bets today article, so hopefully we can rectify that with today’s slate of games. As always on Saturdays, I’m only looking at the games with some lead time, so that does cut out a few of the early matchups.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.

Here are two college basketball best bets for today.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Saint Peter’s Peacocks vs. Fairfield Stags (-2.5, 128.5)

7:30 p.m. ET

Saint Peter’s and Fairfield will battle it out for the MAAC Championship and the conference’s lone entry into the NCAA Tournament. Fairfield has not gone dancing since 1997, so head coach Chris Casey, who started the year as the interim and recently got the full-time gig, doesn’t have to do anything to pump up his team here.

Neither does Peacocks head coach Bashir Mason, but I think Fairfield is simply the better team here. What I like about the Stags is that they’ve gotten to this point despite shooting 9-of-46 from 3. This is a team that ranks 25th in 3P% at 36.9% and shot 40.7% in MAAC play. To win games without their biggest weapon is really impressive and I could totally see their distance shooting rebound a bit in this game. Saint Peter’s is a good 3P% defense, but there has to be some positive regression to the mean for the Stags.

Meanwhile, Saint Peter’s is 26-of-76 on 2-point shots in this tournament, so they’ve been extremely fortunate to beat Rider and Quinnipiac. That said, they’ve won with defense, as they’ve held opponents to 32-of-86 on 2s and 5-of-25 on 3s. But, I think they get tested a little more here, as Fairfield’s 3-point prowess is unmatched in the conference.

Saint Peter’s is only shooting 48.3% on Close Twos and 42.1% on 2s overall. If Fairfield does make some 3s here, I think it’s tough for the Peacocks to keep up. Fairfield did win both head-to-head meetings, 64-62 and 76-67, and I think they get a third today.

Pick: Fairfield -2.5

UTEP Miners vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-3, 145)

8:30 p.m. ET

The rubber match between UTEP and Western Kentucky is for all the marbles in Conference USA. The winner goes to the NCAA Tournament and the loser does not, as these teams meet for the third time this season.

There is an injury of note here, as Western Kentucky looks likely to be without senior Dontaie Allen, who left yesterday’s game with a knee injury and went straight to a local hospital. Allen is a notable loss as a 42% 3-point shooter, but I think there are a couple ways this unfortunate situation could benefit the Hilltoppers.

First, it would be another rallying moment for the team if they are missing a senior leader on the team. You shouldn’t need that with the NCAA Tournament on the line, but the emotions of sport are a real thing. Second, and most importantly for the handicap, WKU has a big advantage on the inside against UTEP. The Miners have allowed a 40.5% shot share on Close Twos and a 62% FG%. Their FG% against is the 52nd-worst in the nation. Allen doesn’t take a lot of shots at the rim. His absence, if that is the case, could force the Hilltoppers to go inside more.

UTEP is one of the shorter teams in the country, which is why they’ve been susceptible at the rim. They’re actually a top-100 3P% defense, but they’re around 300th on 2-point shots. Western Kentucky’s 45.3% shot share on Close Twos ranks 16th.

Between that and UTEP’s high-pressure, turnover-forcing defense, I could see foul trouble being a major issue for the Miners here. Most of the primary players for the Hilltoppers shoot over 70% at the line.

Lastly, WKU has won by 20 and 31 in this tournament. UTEP has won by nine and by two yesterday against Sam Houston State, so I think WKU has a chance at being the fresher of the two teams here.

Pick: Western Kentucky -3

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