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Everybody is definitely talking about how chalky this year’s NCAA Tournament has been, but it has maybe led to the best Elite Eight ever. All eight teams left standing are ranked in the top 10 for KenPom and top 12 for Bart Torvik, as we look at Texas Tech vs. Florida and Alabama vs. Duke tonight before getting Tennessee vs. Houston and Michigan State vs. Auburn tomorrow.
This should be some high-level basketball and these top teams with limited differences in talent and statistical profile have the chance to give us some very dramatic endings. After all, that’s what we all want out of March Madness, right? Cinderella stories are fun. But, we want to be entertained more than anything.
It’s a great time to sign up as a VSiN Pro subscriber, which you can become for the low cost of $9.99 for the first month. We have previews of every NCAA Tournament game coming your way as things progress.
Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.
This article will run every day with CBB games through the end of the season. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Florida Gators (-7, 157.5)
6:09 p.m. ET
I feel like I’ve had a hard time getting things right this month, but one thing I did get right is this Texas Tech vs. Florida matchup in the Elite Eight. The Red Raiders were a team I liked when I saw the draw and it has come to fruition, as they’ll get their chance against the Gators. Unfortunately, much like the bracket I filled out, I am picking Texas Tech’s run to end here and I think it ends with a little bit of a whimper.
The Red Raiders looked a little lifeless and tired in the Sweet 16 game against Arkansas. The first half was a bit disjointed and the second half featured a furious comeback. It was a great win for Grant McCasland and the program, but did they spend too much energy to have enough left in the tank for this game?
Florida, meanwhile, wound up blowing out Maryland, even without the services of Alex Condon. Both teams are dealing with key injuries here, as Condon is hobbled by an ankle and Chance McMillian remains out for the Red Raiders with an injury he suffered in the Big 12 Tournament. There’s an outside chance that he plays, though I do wonder if it’s just been gamesmanship from McCasland to this point.
This is just a game of “anything you can do, I can do better”. Texas Tech has an impressive set of metrics across the board, but Florida’s are better in nearly every one of them. Per Torvik, adjusted offensive efficiency (2 vs. 7), adjusted defensive efficiency (15 vs. 37), eFG% (28 vs. 36), eFG% defense (5 vs. 52), ORB% (5 vs. 50), and 2P% (25 vs. 49). Texas Tech does lead in both TO% departments and has made more 3s, but Florida does get to the rim at a much higher rate and is a top-five team in 3P% defense, which is thoroughly impressive considering all the good shooters in the SEC.
Tech’s defense has gotten progressively worse in the tourney and Florida’s numbers in games against top-50 opponents are much stronger than their opponent’s.
Note: DraftKings is -7.5 at -102, but they are the only ones at 7.5 at time of publish, so I’ll grade this at 7. Note FanDuel probably has the best price at 6.5 and -118 on Florida.
Pick: Florida -7
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Duke Blue Devils (-7, 175.5)
8:49 p.m. ET
The nightcap of Saturday’s Elite Eight action features Alabama and Duke in what projects to be a slugfest of a game. The total keeps climbing, now up to 175.5 and I don’t think it’s done yet with this being the late game of the day.
The Crimson Tide put on a shooting display in the Sweet 16, going 25-of-51 on 3s against BYU to put up 110 points. It did not take that kind of out-of-body experience from Duke for them to hang a 100 on Arizona. So, I can understand the sentiment of looking to fade the Crimson Tide off of that huge shooting performance. But, here’s the thing…
BYU was the top team in the nation at limiting shot share on Close Twos. Their defense is predicated on keeping teams away from the rim. So Alabama, feeling it from deep with multiple shooters, took what they were given. I don’t expect to see a 3P Rate of that magnitude against the Blue Devils. I’d expect a much more balanced offensive approach from Nate Oats and his squad.
Duke is undoubtedly an awesome team, but I can’t help but feel like this is a spot where the strength of schedule and maybe a little bit of fraud in their metrics comes to the forefront. Arizona covered against them and I could see Alabama do the same. The Crimson Tide have played the No. 1 strength of schedule in the nation, including the top-ranked slate of opposing offenses and third-ranked slate of opposing defenses per KenPom. Duke is 57th in strength of schedule, 49th in opposing offenses and 62nd in opposing defenses.
Now, the adjusted metrics take that into account, so Duke is not fraudulent to be in the top five in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. However, they built up a lot of that reputation bludgeoning ACC competition. Alabama played in a conference that got 12 teams in the NCAA Tournament.
I just don’t see Alabama getting handled in this game. Their lack of turnovers on defense is a concern, but it has been all year long and they’re still top 15 in 3P% against and a top-100 defense in 2P% against. They’ve played 19 Quadrant 1 and 16 Quadrant 1-A games. Duke has played 12 and 9, respectively. It’s hard to beat this Alabama team by margin and I don’t think Duke is the team to do it.
Note: Similar situation here, as DraftKings has Alabama +7.5 (-122) while the rest of the market is 7. I will simply grade at 7.
Pick: Alabama +7
