College Basketball Best Bets Today:

We have exactly 100 college basketball games today, including the continuation of several conference tournaments. We also have the starts of the Big Sky and America East Conference Tournaments as well. Tip times go from Noon ET to 11:30 p.m. ET, so it is truly a full day of college basketball. Our first automatic qualifier for the NCAA Tournament will be decided today between Southeast Missouri State and SIU Edwardsville in the Ohio Valley.

As usual, with a lot of day games on the docket, I’ve started my handicapping with the games that begin at 5 p.m. ET or later to ensure enough lead time for readers. If you want something earlier, Greg Peterson has you covered.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Boston College Eagles at Pitt Panthers (-11.5, 140.5)

6 p.m. ET

Boston College’s season will come to a close today. With teams added to the ACC this season, the conference tournament is set up to only take 15 of the 18 member schools to Charlotte for Tuesday’s first-round games. The Eagles, who are just 4-15 in conference play, will be done for the season, along with Miami and reigning ACC Tournament champion NC State.

We’ve seen a few teams rally in these “meaningless” games, including NJIT over Binghamton in a pick I had earlier this week and Northern Illinois against a desperate Central Michigan team last night. Pitt is playing for seeding here, but that’s really about it, as we may see Jeff Capel opt to spread the minutes around and keep his team as fresh as possible because they’ll play on Tuesday.

Pitt has not been playing well at all. They’re lost eight of 10 and have scored under a point per possession in back-to-back games and four of their last eight. They’ve allowed over a point per possession on defense in all but two of their conference games. Obviously the Eagles aren’t playing well since they’re not going to qualify for the ACC Tournament, but this will be their last game and probably something of a rallying cry to finish a tough season with a win.

These two teams also rank below the national average in tempo and I think we could see them play at an even slower pace in a game where energy could be a little bit tricky to find. Leading scorer Chad Venning did not play the last game for Clemson with a foot injury. With no eligibility left I’m thinking he’ll give it a go in his final college game.

Pitt only has a 31.7% shot share on Close Twos for the season. Both teams take a lot of jump shots. I feel like this will be a low-scoring slog of a game.

Pick: Boston College +11.5

Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Longhorns (-5.5, 154.5)

8 p.m. ET

I don’t dabble in the SEC a whole lot, but this was a game that caught my eye, as Oklahoma and Texas come together in Austin. Texas led by as many as 23 in the first game in Norman, but ultimately came away with a four-point win. In that game, Oklahoma had 30 shot attempts at the rim compared to 20 for Texas, so that’s a good sign for me here in this one.

Oklahoma has a higher Rim & 3 Rate, which you know is a stat I like to look at. For the Sooners, 84% of their shot attempts have been Close Twos as defined by Torvik or 3-pointers. For Texas, that percentage is around 72%. Not surprisingly, the Longhorns are 13th in 2P% offense and 10th in 3P% offense in SEC play, while Oklahoma is seventh in 2P% and fifth in 3P%.

I actually think that the Sooners, statistically, are better than their record would indicate. Also, they’re playing better right now. According to Haslametrics’ Momentum metric, Texas has the 22nd-lowest Momentum mark right now, which is a measure of a team’s last 4-8 games compared to their full-season performance. Oklahoma hasn’t banked a ton of wins, but they’ve had close losses to Kentucky and Ole Miss recently, while getting wins over Mississippi State and a really good win over Missouri on Wednesday.

Texas has played a couple of overtime games of late and they’ve lost six of their last eight. This is a play on a team with better shot selection and better recent form.

DraftKings is 5.5 at -115, with the rest of the market at 5, so I’ll grade this at 5.

Pick: Oklahoma +5

Utah Valley Wolverines (-6.5, 128.5) at Tarleton State Texans

8 p.m. ET

Utah Valley was good to us on the road in Texas on Thursday night and I expect them to do the same here, as the Wolverines can lock up the WAC regular season title with a win over the Texans. Utah Valley was actually held under 1 PPP for the first time since their only conference loss against Grand Canyon back on Feb. 1 in the 73-60 win over Abilene Christian. I’d expect an offensive bounce back here.

In the first game against Tarleton, Utah Valley won by 25. They won the turnover battle 17-10, a big deal because Tarleton ranks No. 3 in the nation in TO% on defense per Torvik. However, they also rank 364th in TO% on offense. So, the fact that the Wolverines are so good at taking care of the basketball plays into their favor here.

When Tarleton doesn’t force a turnover, they are not a very good defense. They are ninth in WAC play in 2P% defense and sixth in 3P%. Utah Valley has better shooting numbers by far across the board and better defensive numbers as well. The one area where Tarleton is stronger is at the free throw line, but Utah Valley doesn’t foul much and Tarleton fouls a ton, so I don’t think that’s an edge for the Texans either.

With clear motivation, a travel day on Friday to go from Abilene to Stephenville, and much stronger numbers across the board, I’m back on the Wolverines tonight, even if the number is a little bigger.

Pick: Utah Valley -6.5

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