College Basketball Best Bets Today:

College basketball Saturdays are going to be loaded with games throughout the year. That isn’t quite the case here today, as we have 53 games on the slate, but that’s about half or less of what we can expect when we get deeper into the season. For now, college football still dominates Saturday and coaches want the fans to show up at their games, so it is more of a strategic schedule than anything.

Anyway, 53 games is still more than enough for us to sort through and analyze, especially as we’re still early in the season and it takes a little more time than normal to break down the teams and the matchups. Don’t overreact to early-season sample sizes or results, but also, don’t under-react, as that may simply be the current reality for a team.

 

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Rough night last night. I had write-ups of games that I liked that I either backspaced for a different game or the line moved while I was writing. It’ll happen. You just hope it doesn’t happen often.

Lastly, because I’m in Las Vegas (PT), I typically don’t like to do games before 4 p.m. ET on Saturdays so that everybody has enough lead time to dig into the article. That will be my philosophy going forward and on any other day with a lot of early games.

Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Wofford Terriers at Lipscomb Bisons (-3, 154.5)

5 p.m. ET

Wofford and Lipscomb square off in a rematch of last season, a game that the Bisons won 85-78 with both teams on a run of three consecutive games. Lipscomb no longer has Derrin Boyd, who had 12 points in that one. However, they do have Jacob Ognacevic back. Ognacevic was a top-100 player by Torvik’s PORPATAGU! metric, which is essentially a college basketball version of WAR.

He was a 70% shooter on 2s that season and had 17.4 points per game to go with about five rebounds per contest. He’s a vital piece of the puzzle for Lipscomb and a guy who can make up for the loss of Boyd, who did miss ample time last season after suffering a torn ACL. Joe Anderson and Will Pruitt are returnees for Lipscomb as well, who went on the road and beat Duquesne before a loss to Arkansas and new head coach John Calipari.

Wofford returns a lot of production from last season’s 17-15 team under Dwight Perry. Last year’s Terriers were iffy on defense to say the least, as they ranked 277th in adjusted defensive efficiency. I find that a problem in this one against Lennie Acuff’s experienced bunch. Lipscomb also already has two games played to Wofford’s one and the Terriers played lower-division Erskine.

Lipscomb was -5.5 on a neutral last season and I think this year’s team could be better because of Ognacevic.

Pick: Lipscomb -4

Montana State Bobcats at Wichita State Shockers (-9.5, 151.5)

7 p.m. ET

Big Sky vs. AAC in this one, as Montana State takes the trek to Wichita to battle the Shockers. Wichita State picked up a really nice win in the opener over Western Kentucky in a game where I thought about taking them, but ultimately decided against it. They scored 91 points, so it was an impressive offensive showing, but they also had some major defensive issues. The Shockers were 11-of-27 from 3 in that one and also scored 26 points at the line, as the teams combined for 50 one-pointers.

Montana State came up short on the road against Wisconsin, but I saw some positives in the box score. The Badgers were only 11-of-31 on 2-point shots and the Bobcats did make 12 of their 26 3-pointers. Going forward, I think we can expect more from returnees Brandon Walker and Brian Goracke. Walker’s size isn’t as effective against a team like the Badgers.

Western Kentucky is a team in flux with a new head coach in Hank Plona. Montana State enters Year 2 with Matt Logie after he took them to the NCAA Tournament in his first season. I expect the Bobcats to be a decent team. Not only that, but they had 1.025 points per possession (PPP) and only had five shot attempts at the rim. Expect them to get to the tin more often against Wichita State.

Pick: Montana State +9.5

New Mexico State Aggies (-3, 148.5) at Utah Tech Trailblazers

9 p.m. ET

I happen to think Jason Hooten has himself a really good ballclub in Las Cruces. The Aggies brought in some quality transfers, including Maine swingman Peter Filipovity, who shot better than 60% on 2s. Dionte Bostick has logged a lot of minutes for Murray State and Cal State Northridge, a team that really emphasizes getting to the rim for high-percentage shots.

Hooten inherited a real mess from Greg Heiar, as the program was under investigation a couple years ago and actually cut the season short. It wasn’t a surprise that the former Sam Houston State bench boss had a tough first year. In his final season with the Bearkats, Hooten won 26 games. I don’t know that this team has that kind of upside, but they at least have the chance to upgrade significantly from last year.

As it is, Torvik has them ranked about 100 spots higher than last season’s team based on the level of transfer that Hooten was able to get to the Land of Enchantment.

Utah Tech got outscored 40-14 at the rim by Oregon State. While I don’t think that NMSU is on the Beavers’ level, I still expect that they’re going to be solid. The Trailblazers returned a solid player in Noa Gonsalves, but most of their top producers from last season have gone elsewhere.

Pick: New Mexico State -3