College Basketball Best Bets Today:

After a couple of busy nights on the college basketball hardwood, we scale back a bit on Thursday. There are only 18 games for your betting pleasure and there are very few big-name programs in action. However, there are quite a few really interesting games on the slate featuring teams from one-bid leagues to get a feel for how those conferences might play out this season.

We have a ton of content rolling in here at VSiN on a daily basis, so you may want to bookmark our College Basketball Articles page so you can find this and also Greg Peterson’s top CBB bets of the day.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Oakland Golden Grizzlies (-1, 128.5) at Cleveland State Vikings

7 p.m. ET

Oakland and Cleveland State get together for some Horizon League hoops at the Wolstein Center in The Land. This game should be played at a painfully slow pace, as we have Oakland, who ranks 359th in adjusted tempo per Torvik and 360th for KenPom up against a Cleveland State team that is 235th and 240th, respectively. 

Greg Kampe always schedules up in the non-conference, so you need to be careful with Oakland’s numbers, but we do have two data points against Horizon League opponents. The Grizzlies won 66-64 over Wright State in a game played to 61 possessions where the teams were a combined 25-of-56 from 3. Oakland lost 66-50 to Youngstown State in a game where the Grizzlies had just .822 points per possession.

These are not gifted offenses. Oakland is the better 3-point shooting team at 26.5%. Cleveland State sits at 26%. Oakland has a very low shot share on Close Twos and Cleveland State may not find much success getting inside against a defense with a 31% shot share against on Close Twos.

Also, Oakland’s second-leading scorer and leading rebounder Buru Naivalurua was seen in a back brace prior to the game against Michigan State. He is one of just three players averaging over 6.8 PPG and one is DQ Cole, who is shooting 33.3% from the floor and 29.7% from 3.

These are two terrible half-court offenses in a slow-paced game with what is likely to be a very key injury.

Pick: Under 128.5

Lipscomb Bisons at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-2, 149)

7:30 p.m. ET

Lipscomb and MTSU is a game that should happen every year. The two schools are just just 40 minutes apart on I-24, but they haven’t played since 2019 when the Blue Raiders won 73-70 in the second game of the season. These are two solid basketball teams, as Lipscomb is 94th for Torvik and 98th for KenPom, while MTSU is 132nd for Torvik and 137th for KenPom.

The stats say that Lipscomb has a solid defense, but they’ve really padded their numbers recently by dominating the likes of Jackson State, Alabama A&M, and SEMO State. Middle Tennessee is a solid offensive team with a 46% shot share on Close Twos, as they’ve done well to take high-percentage shots and pull down offensive rebounds.

Lipscomb is also a talented offensive bunch, shooting 64.2% on shot attempts at the rim. Their 3-point shooting has been skewed by back-to-back games against Western Kentucky and Kentucky where they went 10-for-60 from 3. Outside of those two games, they’re shooting 37.2% from 3 against Division I opponents. I think this is a good spot to back the Lipscomb offense, as they’ve been riding a nice wave against those lesser teams and have had a light schedule.

The Bisons shook off some rust against lower-division Truett-McConnell on Monday and will play their first D-I opponent in 14 days. This is not a deep team at all, so you want to catch them when they’re fresh. They won’t play again for 10 days.

What stands out to me about MTSU is that they’ve struggled defensively against most above average offenses. Murray State had nearly 1.3 points per possession, while South Florida had 1.25 and Bradley had 1.237 and Belmont had 1.126. If Lipscomb can do something similar tonight – and I expect that they can – this game should go Over the total. The offense is better with Jlynn Counter on the floor and struggling Camryn Weston had a breakout game with 30 points on Monday against Cal Baptist.

Pick: Over 149

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