College basketball best bets today

The month of February begins with a healthy number of games, as 130 teams are in action on the first of the month. Remember that we are starting to get a good numbers of rematches, so I encourage you to check out Steve Makinen’s latest article on rematch games after you look at my favorite college basketball best bets today.

January was a good month, as you can see from the tracking sheet linked below, but the last week of the month was underwhelming. Hopefully February can get off on the right foot with 65 games to choose from.

 

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Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.

Here are three college basketball best bets for today.

Stonehill Skyhawks at Sacred Heart Pioneers (-10, 141.5)

7 p.m. ET

This is maybe the deepest of deep cuts that I’ve had in the article so far this season, as we head to Fairfield, Connecticut for this matchup between Sacred Heart and Stonehill. The Skyhawks have had a rough second season as a Division I team, as they are just 2-20 and 0-7 in NEC play after going 14-17 last season and 10-6 in league action.

This is a putrid offensive team and that’s the biggest reason why. Stonehill has a TO% of 21% in the seven conference losses and that’s even higher than the 19.8% for the season, which included a fairly robust non-conference schedule.

To exacerbate that issue here, Sacred Heart has a 20.9% TO% for the season and a 21.1% TO% in conference play. They take the ball away a lot and they convert. They are second in the conference in adjusted offensive efficiency, eFG% offense, free throw rate, 2P%, 3P%, and FT%. 

Stonehill is terrible at finishing around the rim and Sacred Heart leads the conference in Block%. Also, the Skyhawks shoot a ton of 3s, but they only shoot 31.1% on them and 29% over their four road games in conference play.

With the turnovers and missed shots, I don’t see how they keep up here with a Sacred Heart squad that has done very well in league action on the offensive end.

Pick: Sacred Heart -10

UT Martin Skyhawks (-1, 149.5) at Eastern Illinois Panthers

8:30 p.m. ET

We head to the Ohio Valley Conference and the small town of Charleston for this matchup between UT Martin and Eastern Illinois. The Skyhawks should be in good shape here, as Eastern Illinois has been a terrible defensive team throughout the season, bailed out only by a high TO%.

EIU’s 20.2% TO% on defense ranks 40th in the nation, but UT Martin’s TO% of 15.8% on offense ranks 82nd and they sit at 15.6% in conference play, which is the second-best mark in the conference. Turnovers have saved EIU from being among the nation’s worst teams in adjusted defensive efficiency because they are 319th in 2P% defense and 332nd in 3P% defense.

The Panthers have allowed opponents to finish at a 64.6% rate on Close Twos and a 36.9% rate on 3s. UT Martin is around the national averages in Close Two FG% and shot share, but ranks 50th in 3P%. Also, they have the nation’s second-lowest shot share against on Close Twos at 24.2%, so they should win the shot selection battle easily here.

There are 11 teams in the OVC. EIU ranks 11th in eFG% defense, 2P% offense, and 2P% defense, while also being 10th in 3P% defense and OREB%. The Skyhawks are 10th in TO% on defense, but that is the only area in which they struggle. I like their shot-making abilities here a lot.

Pick: UT Martin -1

San Diego Toreros at San Francisco Dons (-18.5, 150.5)

11 p.m. ET

San Diego has been pretty good to me of late and I think the Toreros are a little bit undervalued tonight in their rematch against San Francisco. The Dons won by 20 on the road in the first meeting, but San Diego lost Deuce Turner to injury in that game and also had Wayne McKinney coming off of injury after missing the blowout loss to Gonzaga. He had 19 points, but also had a season-high five turnovers, as his usage increased when Turner went out. He had six in the next game without Turner.

I’m not going to try and make a huge case against USF here, as they are one of the nation’s better mid-majors. They force a lot of turnovers and play well on both ends of the floor. My thought process here is two-fold.

First, San Diego is healthier going into this one. Second, Steve Lavin is an extremely experienced head coach and I think he’ll make enough adjustments to keep this from being an embarrassment. San Diego’s won back-to-back games over Portland and Pepperdine, who are clear steps down in class, but the team got the offense going a bit in those two games, especially on the interior.

I also feel like Dons head coach Chris Gerlufsen is going to be aware of keeping guys fresh. Jonathan Mogbo only played 26 minutes in the win at Portland with the game in hand during a 12-point victory. He monitored Malik Thomas’s minutes as well.

USF has nothing to prove against anybody other than Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s, so I don’t think there’s a lot of incentive here.

Pick: San Diego +18.5

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