College Basketball Best Bets Today:

A busy Thursday on the college basketball schedule features 59 games. But, there aren’t a lot of household teams and conferences, so it will be a very interesting day for bettors that have recently transitioned to college hoops with the Super Bowl over. That will lead to lots of action on Maryland vs. Nebraska and San Francisco vs. Gonzaga as teams that people know, even if they’ve just been casually following thus far.

Thursday nights feature a lot of action from the one-bid leagues, so it takes a little bit more digging and a little more effort to come up with some good bets. Hopefully that’s what I’ll be doing here today. Action starts at 5 p.m. ET today and the last tip will be at midnight ET out in Honolulu.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

James Madison Dukes (-3.5, 144.5) at Georgia Southern Eagles

7 p.m. ET

After a quick break from Sun Belt play by visiting schools up north, James Madison and Georgia Southern get back into conference play today. Everybody in the Sun Belt played a road game at a MAC school last time out, as JMU had their five-game winning streak snapped by Toledo and Georgia Southern blew out Western Michigan.

Now that we’re back to conference play, I think we have a little bit more predictability and I’m predicting that James Madison gets back to their winning ways. The Dukes have played the second-ranked strength of schedule so far in Sun Belt play, while Georgia Southern has played the 14th-ranked slate of opponents out of 14 teams.

James Madison ranks seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency and sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Georgia Southern ranks worse in both categories against a weaker schedule. They are actually 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency, even though they’ve actually done a pretty good job of forcing turnovers to this point.

JMU would be doing better on offense, but they are only shooting 31.6% from 3, which ranks 10th. However, the Dukes were just 13-of-24 against Toledo and shot 33.9% from 3 during their five-game conference winning streak. The Dukes are shooting nearly 76% from the free throw line overall and over 78% in conference play, while Georgia Southern is under 65% at the stripe. That matters in what is lined as a two-possession game.

Pick: James Madison -3.5

Stetson Hatters at Lipscomb Bisons (-17.5, 147.5)

8:15 p.m. ET

A bit of an odd tip time for this one in the Atlantic Sun, but Stetson is on the road in Nashville to take on Lipscomb. This is the last potential laugher for Lipscomb for a little while. They’ve played the worst strength of schedule in the conference so far, but have Florida Gulf Coast, Eastern Kentucky, North Alabama, and a road game at Austin Peay before finishing up the regular season with Central Arkansas.

Lennie Acuff knows he has a team capable of winning the A-Sun and heading to the NCAA Tournament, so this is the type of game where we could see monitored minutes for his top players. I also think we’re going to see a slow-paced game here. Lipscomb moves a bit slower than Stetson and should be able to dictate the pace. These are two terrible offensive rebounding teams, so that should limit a lot of second-chance opportunities.

Stetson does get to the rim at a higher rate and shoots the 3-pointer at a competent enough percentage to score a little bit in this one. They’re also first in the conference in FT Rate, a big accomplishment given their record and the fact that they aren’t parading to the line in late-game situations. Stetson is shooting 35% from 3 and 52.6% on 2s, so this is not a bad offensive bunch in A-Sun action that is getting a 17.5-point head start.

Lipscomb has struggled recently on defense as well, allowing 1.220, .855, 1.155, 1.168, .978, and 1.158 points per possession in their last six games, likely the reason why Haslametrics has them in the bottom 25 of his Momentum metric.

Pick: Stetson +17.5

Tennessee State Tigers (-3.5, 142.5) at Eastern Illinois Panthers

8:30 p.m. ET

Tennessee State has been playing some good ball recently, as the Tigers have won six of their last seven and seven of their last nine. In that span, their only losses have been in double overtime against SIUE and one overtime against SEMO State. In that span, they beat this Eastern Illinois team by 19 with a dominating performance all the way around and I think we see the same again here tonight.

Tennessee State has moved up 47 spots in Haslametrics’ rankings over the last 30 days and they rank in the top 70 in his Momentum metric, which is a measure of how much a team has been overperforming expectation recently. The Tigers lead the conference in adjusted offensive efficiency and 2P%. Eastern Illinois, meanwhile, is 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency and eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency.

TSU has some clear advantages tonight. They are far and away the better offensive rebounding team and also rank in the top 30 in FT Rate, due in large part to a 44.7% shot share on Close Twos. They’re also shooting 62.3% on those shots and face an EIU defense that has allowed opponents to shoot nearly 64% at the rim.

In the first game, EIU actually had 36 shot attempts at the rim compared to 25 for Tennessee State and still lost by 19. I would expect defensive adjustments from the Tigers, a better showing on the glass, and continued success with getting to the free throw line.

Pick: Tennessee State -3.5

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