College Basketball Best Bets Today:

Doesn’t 64 seem like a good number of games for the Thursday just three weeks in advance of the first big day of the NCAA Tournament? I feel like it’s pretty fitting. Of course, there are not a lot of tournament teams in action, as nearly all of the big conferences take a day of rest and give the spotlight to the mid-major and low-major leagues, which are mostly wrapping up their regular seasons this week.

Our first conference tournament preview will be the Atlantic Sun Conference, which tips off on Sunday. As soon as odds are posted, we’ll be hard at work on the first of 31 tourneys that will be previewed in March at VSiN.com.

 

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For now, we still have some regular season business to tend to.

Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Liberty Flames (-7.5, 134.5)

7 p.m. ET

The battle for first place in Conference USA brings together Jacksonville State and Liberty. Jacksonville State is a half-game ahead and has a head-to-head win against the Flames so far, as Liberty has a game in hand.

The Gamecocks won 72-61 in the first game, as they were able to keep Liberty at bay, despite getting outscored by 21 in the 3-point department. The Flames struggled badly on defense against Ray Harper’s team, allowing 1.125 points per possession. Jacksonville State was a solid 14-of-21 at the rim and 11-of-25 on mid-range jumpers.

This is a pretty simple handicap. These are two very slow teams. The first game was played to 64 possessions and I could see this one going even slower on Liberty’s home floor. It takes a high degree of efficiency for Liberty to cover this type of spread, especially with a group shooting just 63.4% from the free throw line in conference play.

Jacksonville State is the better rebounding team and better free throw shooting team. There are some big shooting number differences, but Liberty definitely beats up on lesser teams. Jacksonville State is much closer to being a peer than anybody else in C-USA.

Pick: Jacksonville State +7.5

Little Rock Trojans (-5.5, 129.5) at Eastern Illinois Panthers

8:30 p.m. ET

Little Rock and Eastern Illinois square off in what is a revenge game for the road favorite Trojans. Little Rock blew a seven-point lead with under two minutes left to lose by two in the first meeting at home back on Jan. 27.

The first game was postponed and played mid-afternoon on a Monday after one of Little Rock’s student managers was tragically killed in a car accident on the morning of Dec. 21.

Saturday’s game is a big one for Little Rock. The No. 2 seed in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament is very important because it is a bye straight to the semifinals. Right now, the Trojans are tied with SIU Edwardsville and have a head-to-head win. It’s entirely possible that they are looking ahead, but they shouldn’t be since they need this win as well.

Little Rock is the top team in the OVC by adjusted defensive efficiency and they’re also first in the conference in 3P%. They’re fourth in 2P% and second in FT%. This is a pretty good offensive team, bogged down by a high TO% on offense. Eastern Illinois is good at forcing turnovers, but also gives the ball away a lot. They’re also a very inefficient shooting team that ranks 11th in 2P% and ninth in 3P%.

I’m expecting revenge.

Pick: Little Rock -5.5

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders at New Mexico State Aggies (-1.5, 137.5)

9 p.m. ET

The worst road trip in Conference USA is the Las Cruces-El Paso double and that is the task at hand this week for Middle Tennessee, as the Blue Raiders drove from Murfreesboro to Nashville to fly out to the desert to take on New Mexico State. The Aggies are a short favorite here, despite winning the first game on the road back on Jan. 30 by a 61-57 count.

That was an odd game, as only two points were scored over the final 3:56 of game play, as the teams went ice cold from the floor and fouling wasn’t needed in a one-possession contest. The Aggies actually led by as many as 16 in the first half before Middle Tennessee methodically clawed back to make it a closer game.

In the first meeting, New Mexico State won in all the key areas. They had more offensive rebounds (13-8), forced more turnovers (15-10) and had more shot attempts at the rim (31-14). I should note that MTSU’s 6-foot-9 senior Essam Mostafa, who is second in points and first in rebounds, did not play. 

Even still, these are two teams going in different directions. New Mexico State has a +2.77 in Haslametrics’ Momentum metric, while Middle Tennessee has a -3.26. The Aggies have jumped 23 spots in the last week and 18 in the last 30 days, while MTSU is down 10 spots in the last week and 22 in the last 30 days.

New Mexico State is the top defensive team in the conference by adjusted defensive efficiency and I’d like to think that their offensive profile would get a bump being at home after sweeping a road trip against Jacksonville State and Kennesaw State.

Pick: New Mexico State -1.5

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