College Basketball Best Bets Today:

Thursday brings us a huge slate of college basketball action, as we have 62 games to contemplate. There are a few major-conference clashes, but a lot of mid-major and low-major conferences will be on display. It should be a really interesting night of hoops, at least for me because these are the types of conferences that I like to really dig into in hopes of finding value.

Keep an eye out for some travel spots and other things in those small conferences, especially with the quick turnaround from Thursday to Saturday. Some of these teams in one-bid leagues are out there taking long bus rides to and from games and some of these destinations can be pretty out there. It may or may not be a factor, but it could be a piece of the puzzle worth considering.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

William & Mary Tribe (-3.5, 151) at Hampton Pirates

7 p.m. ET

To the CAA we go for a team that I backed last Thursday in a 78-65 win over Elon against a team that I faded last Thursday as a home favorite against Campbell that lost outright. That is William & Mary as the former and Hampton as the latter as the two teams get together tonight.

William & Mary’s offense is a problem in the CAA. In four games, they’ve scored 1.109, 1.264, 1.266, and 1.069 points per possession. Former Cornell head coach Brian Earl built that program up into a 22-win squad and then took the job with the Tribe, who have an outside shot at 20 wins in Year 1. With Cornell, Earl’s last three teams were 34th, 19th, and 9th in eFG% offense and they are currently 29th this season.

This is an extremely efficient 2-point offense that is shooting over 58% inside the arc, which falls in line with what his teams did at Cornell. This version, though, is shooting 35.8% from 3, which is better than any of his Big Red squads. That’s good because the Tribe are taking a 3 on 51.5% of their shots.

Hampton is 339th in eFG% offense and 291st in eFG% defense. William & Mary also pushes the pace because they want to trust their offensive efficiency in higher-scoring games and also try to get teams running around on defense. For a Hampton team that fouls a ton and plays an aggressive defense, I think that’s a really bad matchup.

The only real edge for the Pirates is that they are great on the offensive glass. Well, Elon had 19 offensive rebounds last Thursday, went 16-of-29 at the rim, and still lost by 13. They’re an objectively better team than Hampton, too. I view this as a pretty massive mismatch on offense.

Pick: William & Mary -3.5

Charleston Cougars (-4, 150.5) at Campbell Fighting Camels

7 p.m. ET

Back to the CAA again for this matchup with Charleston and Campbell. The Fighting Camels were good to us against that Hampton team I’m fading, but I’m looking to go against them here in this spot. Campbell has the 22nd-lowest “Paper Tiger Factor” per Haslametrics, a stat that illustrates how teams do playing against superior competition or inferior competition. Campbell has done well with lesser teams, but struggled with better opponents.

Charleston is undoubtedly a better opponent, despite the hideous performance against Monmouth last time out. I’m willing to chalk that up to a big of a hangover after the road win at Hofstra. This is a solid Charleston team overall that has losses to Liberty, Rhode Island, and Oregon State.

Charleston should make Campbell uncomfortable here, as the Cougars are 12th in adjusted tempo per Torvik, while the Camels typically plod along at a slower pace, as Camels do. This is a Campbell crew that ranks 352nd in the nation in 2P% defense and a better team like Charleston should be able to take advantage more than lesser foes.

Charleston is also nearly 200 spots better in 3P%, which I also feel like makes a difference, especially in a game played to a quicker pace than Campbell wants. The Cougars are also a 75.4% team at the free throw line, which matters in a game lined in this range.

Pick: Charleston -4

Queens U. Royals (-5.5, 156.5) at Stetson Hatters

7 p.m. ET

Another team that was good to me recently is Queens, as the Royals won and covered as a one-point favorite against Austin Peay on Saturday. They face another lackluster team here in Stetson, a team that they beat 96-87 at home back on January 2. We obviously have a venue change here as the Royals make their way through the Sunshine State with games against Stetson and Florida Gulf Coast this week.

Stetson was 13-of-29 from 3 in the first meeting, but Queens was 12-of-28, as they had fewer turnover, more offensive rebounds, and more shot attempts at the rim. The Royals have won eight of their last nine, with the lone loss coming before Christmas against Ole Miss. They were shaking off some rust for that Stetson game, while the Hatters were blown out by Florida a few days earlier after returning to action.

Queens actually trailed by 12 just six minutes into that game, a hole I don’t expect them to have to dig out of here. The Hatters are 350th in eFG% defense, as they’ve allowed opponents to shoot 37.3% on 3s. Queens is 121st in the nation in 3P% and loves to take a lot of them. The Royals also have major edges in the rebounding department both ways. And they’re playing at a really high level right now.

I don’t think it stops here. Queens, much like Miami (OH) who I had on Tuesday, has been making huge strides in Haslametrics’ rankings, moving up 70 spots in the last 30 days and 41 in the last week.

Pick: Queens -5.5

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