College basketball best bets today

January continues to roll along in the college basketball world, as we’ve got 59 games for the 18th day of the month. There are only 15 games tomorrow before we run into another massive Saturday slate on the hardwood, so you can see the patterns that are forming in terms of game selection throughout the week. It will be pretty consistent until we get to conference tournament weeks in March.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results.

 

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I’ve made my way through the slate of games and here are my favorite college basketball picks for today.

Kennesaw State Owls (-3, 162) at North Florida Ospreys

7 p.m. ET

Today’s picks start in the Atlantic Sun Conference, where Kennesaw State battles it out with North Florida. The Ospreys, who have affectionately been called the “Birds of Trey” in the past, certainly live up to that moniker, as 55.3% of their shot attempts are 3-pointers. That makes them a pretty high-variance team and also produces a ton of high totals for their games. Tonight, they’re facing a Kennesaw State crew that ranks first in adjusted tempo per Bart Torvik, hence the total in the 160s.

Despite the variance and volatility present in this game, I still like Kennesaw State. North Florida point guard Ametri Moss (10.8 PPG, 3 APG) had this tweet after the win over Jacksonville in the last game:

I didn’t find anything definitively reported, other than leaving with a second-half injury, but I can’t imagine he’ll play tonight based on that. He’s the team’s second-leading scorer and the leading assist man, which will push freshman Jaylen Smith into a big role against a pressure defense from the Owls that has a 19.9% TO% on defense.

Also, Moss is one of the few Ospreys that could get to the rim. They have a shot share of 28.7% on Close Twos, which ranks 344th in the nation. Not that they get to the line much, but Moss is also an 89% free throw shooter. I think this is a big loss, assuming he is truly out.

Even if he isn’t (though I think he will be), Kennesaw State has a 41.3% shot share on Close Twos (72nd) and North Florida has allowed a 44.4% shot share (344th), so the Owls should get to the rim. They should also get extra possessions in this game. They do have an above average 3P% defense as well, so I believe that will help here. I just expect UNF to struggle with this matchup, as the Owls are well-coached and one of the most talented teams in the conference.

Pick: Kennesaw State -3

Milwaukee Panthers at Northern Kentucky Norse (-2, 156)

7 p.m. ET

This Horizon League matchup has already seen a little bit of a line move towards the Milwaukee side, as Bart Lundy’s team seems to have figured it all out and has been playing really well of late. In a game that looks like something of an arms race, this one has potential to be yet another game where Northern Kentucky misses Sam Vinson. The senior guard suffered a season-ending injury in the Dec. 21 game against Saint Mary’s and the Norse are just 2-3 without him, including a five-point win over Detroit, who hasn’t won a game since February 28.

Detroit is 0-19 this season and the game was tied with under two minutes left, so the Norse are definitely struggling a bit right now. The Horizon League isn’t exactly known for defense, so NKU is still scoring points, but I’d be surprised if a 47.7% FG% on Farther Twos, as defined by Torvik, is sustainable.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee is one of those “Rim & 3” teams that I like to back, as over 83% of their shot attempts are either at the rim or from deep. Now that Lundy has made some adjustments to the lineup and gotten BJ Freeman back and fully healthy, the Panthers have won six of eight and scored 95 points in one of their losses, which came against Oakland, who appears to be the class of the conference this season.

Northern Kentucky is only shooting 29.8% from 3 and Milwaukee does push the opposition into a lot of 3s. Furthermore, NKU doesn’t like to take them, even though it is a weakness of the Panthers defense with a FG% of 37.2%. I also think there’s some positive regression coming there. Opponents only shot 31.4% from 3 against the Panthers last season.

One team is on the rise and I think the other is on the decline, so I like the road dog here.

Pick: Milwaukee +2

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at UTEP Miners (-6, 126.5)

9 p.m. ET

This may seem like a pretty low total given that UTEP ranks 86th in tempo per Torvik and 77th per KenPom, but a lot of turnovers take place in Miners’ games that artificially inflate the tempo. I’m not interested in the total, but I wanted to throw that out there because I think the turnovers are a big factor in tonight’s game.

UTEP’s TO% on defense is 25.7%, which ranks fourth in the nation per Torvik. Joe Golding brought over his high-pressure defense from Abilene Christian and it has paid some dividends, though his offense turns the ball over too often to really take advantage. For all the takeaways the Miners have, they’ve also turned the ball over at a 22.8% clip, which is 354th in the nation.

The difference here in this game is that Middle Tennessee doesn’t really force that many turnovers. Their TO% on defense is 17.1% and that ranks 196th. Meanwhile, they’ve turned it over at nearly a 21% clip. The national average is 17.6%, so obviously neither team takes care of the ball, but UTEP is better at taking it away.

Then you look at MTSU offensively and they’re 288th in 2P% and 354th in 3P%. They’re shooting just 26.4% from 3. It is really hard to score points when you turn it over a lot and rank 349th in the nation in eFG% offense. Even though UTEP is a flawed team themselves, they are better on offense. They get to the rim more and MTSU allows a 45.7% shot share (354th) on Close Twos by getting burned in transition and not having strong rim protection.

UTEP should get extra possessions in this game and get high-percentage looks at the rim. While the Miners are a poor shooting team, they are shooting 62.1% on Close Twos (73rd) and should capitalize.

Pick: UTEP -6

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