College Basketball Best Bets Today:

Thursday’s busy college basketball slate features 61 games, including a couple early starts due to rescheduled games thanks to the unbelievable snow event along the Gulf of Mexico. Er, Gulf of America. Otherwise, it’s a mostly normal schedule with a lot of teams that are accustomed to playing on Thursdays.

That means we don’t have a lot of major-conference clashes, and have a lot of mid-major and low-major teams hitting the floor. That means digging just a little deeper for today’s picks.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

UNC Wilmington Seahawks at Charleston Cougars (-3, 155.5)

7 p.m. ET

We’re going to find out a lot about UNC Wilmington and Charleston tonight. To this point, Charleston has played the 11th-ranked strength of schedule in the 14-team CAA and UNCW has played the 12th-ranked slate. Now they both step up in class to take on each other.

The handicap is pretty simple for me in this game. Charleston is the better 3-point shooting team with a similar 3P Rate between the two teams. Charleston is shooting 35.9% on 3s with a 39.4% 3P Rate and UNCW is shooting 30.6% with a 39.5% 3P Rate. Charleston also has the better 3-point defense between the two teams while playing a stronger schedule.

It also helps that the Cougars are at home here, where teams are almost always going to shoot better. UNCW has had offensive rebounding advantages in most games and may very well have one here, but they don’t take a lot of shots at the rim with a lower shot share on Close Twos than Charleston, so I’m worried about what they actually do with those rebounds.

This is just the third road game for UNCW since mid-December and they’ve lost to Howard and Hofstra in that span, with a win over Monmouth. I like the Cougars at home here.

Pick: Charleston -3

San Diego Toreros at Portland Pilots (-3, 147)

10 p.m. ET

We head to the West Coast Conference for an interesting game between San Diego and Portland. These two teams have played grueling conference schedules so far, but take a step back in class to face each other.

So far, Portland has played Washington State, Oregon State, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, San Francisco, Pacific, and Washington State a second time. The Pilots have been crushed in five of those six games by double digits, but did outlast Pacific at home on Jan. 16, even though the Tigers were 14-of-29 from 3.

San Diego is a terrible 3-point shooting team, coming in at 28.2%, so I can’t imagine we see that type of performance here. The Toreros are 333rd in eFG% offense, 289th in 2P%, and 348th in 3P%. Portland isn’t a great offensive team by any means, but they’re better in all of those categories and should have a chance at shooting better in a home game against a non-elite/non-quality opponent.

The Pilots are also shooting better than 77% at the free throw line, which may matter a lot in a game like this.

Pick: Portland -3

Idaho State Bengals (-5.5, 129.5) at Sacramento State Hornets

10 p.m. ET

Big Sky basketball in Sacramento features Idaho State and Sacramento State. It is a big road favorite role for a team that is just 5-8, but there is a method to the madness here. The Bengals should easily win the turnover battle, as Sacramento State ranks 339th in the nation with a 21.3% TO%. Those shouldn’t be the only additional possessions for Idaho State, as they rank sixth in the nation in ORB% per Torvik.

The Hornets take a ton of 3s, but there’s a major problem – they aren’t good at shooting them. They’ve got a 46.5% 3P Rate with a 28.1% 3P%. In a game likely played to 65 or fewer possessions, I expect a lot of empty ones on offense for Sac State, which has been the case all season. They’re also going to throw some away, give up second-chance opportunities, and likely be in some foul trouble.

Idaho State may be pushed into taking more 3s here, as Sac State does a good job pushing teams to the perimeter, but that may allow the offensive rebounding prowess to come into play even more.

With those factors, I like the Bengals tonight and they’re also an interesting team long-term, moving up 135 spots for Haslametrics since the preseason and 40 spots in the last week. They’re also 10-3 ATS in 13 Division I games.

Pick: Idaho State -5.5

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