College basketball best bets today

Happy Thursday, friends. This is the closest thing we get to a Saturday card during the work week in college hoops and today’s does not disappoint with 60 games on the betting board. Before getting into the college basketball best bets for today, there is a betting angle I want to discuss.

We are starting to get some rematches at this time of the year with conference games and it is nice having that earlier data point to refer to when handicapping. If you get one of those games, take a deep dive into the box score. See what happened. Was there a big free throw discrepancy? Did one team shoot an abnormally high or low percentage from 3? Was a key player out for that game? You can find some helpful angles when looking at rematches.

 

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Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.

Here are three best bets for Thursday.

South Alabama Jaguars (-4, 141.5) at Louisiana Monroe Warhawks

8:30 p.m. ET

South Alabama and Louisiana Monroe won’t be winning any awards on defense this season, and yet, I like Under 142.5 in this game. The Jaguars have found a little bit of offensive success getting to the rim this season with a 43.3% shot share on Close Twos. Unfortunately, ULM has allowed a shot share of just 31.3% on Close Twos, which ranks 36th in the nation.

Instead, the Warhawks are pushing teams out to the 3-point line, as 45.4% of shots against them have been 3-pointers. South Alabama is shooting 32.5% on 3s, which ranks 229th. Put them out on the road, however, and they are shooting 27.1% from 3 in eight games in road/neutral settings.

The Jaguars rank in the bottom 30 in ORB%, so I expect them to have a lot of one-and-done possessions in this one. Then there’s UL Monroe, who does a really good job on the offensive glass and gets to the line a lot, but without those two things, they wouldn’t score points at all. They’re shooting 24.4% from 3 and 53.5% on Close Twos, so they’re really struggling to score in the two most important areas.

Add in that this game is likely to be played at a below average pace and I like a low-scoring, ugly game that takes the “Fun” out of the “Fun Belt”.

Pick: Under 141.5

Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners at Cal State Northridge Matadors (-3, 145.5)

10 p.m. ET

The Matadors have been good to me this season, as I’ve gone 2-0-1 in their games. They are one of the more improved teams in the country and I think they have a very favorable matchup here against the Roadrunners. Bakersfield has a lot of elements in their statistical profile that I do not like. They are the third-worst team in the nation from 3 at 30.1%, so it’s good that they don’t shoot many with a 23.9% 3P Rate.

However, they take a lot of mid-range jumpers, leading to a 47% success rate on 2s. In this game, their distance shooting is going to be tested. Northridge head coach Andy Newman has done an excellent job in Year 1 and he’s pushed teams away from the basket, holding them to a 30.4% shot share on Close Twos. I don’t see Bakersfield getting inside much and they’re awful from beyond the arc.

Meanwhile, Northridge has a 48% shot share on Close Twos. While they’re only shooting 53.9% on them, at least they’re getting there. In a game where Bakersfield will struggle to score, I’ll take my chances with Northridge getting those looks and getting to the line.

Northridge is the better rebounding team. They’re lowered their TO% for the season throughout conference play. They are the better defensive team. They are a better offensive team, at least by eFG% offense, 2P%, and 3P%. They also play at a pace that may make Bakersfield uncomfortable, as the Matadors are ninth in adjusted tempo and the Roadrunners are 325th.

Pick: Cal State Northridge -3

Pepperdine Waves at Santa Clara Broncos (-8, 151)

10 p.m. ET

Some West Coast Conference action caught my eye for tonight with Pepperdine and Santa Clara. This game feels a lot to me like Santa Clara’s game on Saturday against Portland, where we laid the -11 and Santa Clara won by 15, even though the Pilots were 14-of-28 from 3.

Santa Clara is an excellent offensive team and Pepperdine is terrible on defense. The Broncos rank in the top 75 in both 2P% and 3P%. They are shooting 61.7% on Close Twos and draw a Pepperdine defense that ranks in the bottom 25 in shot share against on Close Twos at 44.2%. They’re also allowing a 62.3% FG% on those types of shots.

Meanwhile, Pepperdine’s shot share on Close Twos is only 31.4%, so they’re settling for a lot of jump shots. To their credit, they’ve done well with mid-range jumpers and are shooting over 35% from 3, but Santa Clara has a higher 3P%. Pepperdine is also among the worst 3P% defenses in the nation.

I’m just not sure how Pepperdine gets stops on defense here and I don’t see how they are able to keep up with Santa Clara given their shot selection. Herb Sendek is also a better head coach than Lorenzo Romar. Add in Santa Clara at home, where they just scored 1.438 points per possession against Portland and have a win over Gonzaga and I like them here.

Pick: Santa Clara -8

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