College Basketball Best Bets Today:

Another good-sized college basketball card is on tap for Thursday, as we’ll have 58 games to pick from. Tonight is the kind of night where a whole lot of mid-major and low-major conferences are in action, but we do have a trio of Big Ten tilts that take top billing. It should be a fun night on the hardwood as teams push towards conference tournaments and all of the excitement that comes with the month of March.

Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

 

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This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Towson Tigers (-2.5, 145.5) at Delaware Blue Hens

6:30 p.m. ET

Towson and Delaware partake in one of three 6:30 p.m. ET tip-offs today. This CAA clash is the first of two games in two weeks between these teams, as Towson hosts on Feb. 13. I expect the Tigers to sweep the season series, beginning with a win tonight.

Let’s start with the conference strength of schedule discrepancy first. Pat Skerry’s Towson team has played the fifth-ranked SOS so far in CAA action, while Delaware has played the 10th-ranked in the 14-team conference. Towson is 7-1 in league action, while Delaware is 4-4, despite playing a tougher slate of opponents.

Delaware also ranks 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency among CAA members. While they’ve excelled on the offensive end of the floor, ranking second in adjusted offensive efficiency, they’ve had lots of problems on the defensive end against some uninspiring competition. Towson is fifth and seventh, respectively, in those two stat categories, but there should be some positive regression coming at the free throw line and on 2-point shots.

This game features an interesting pace war, as Delaware is 47th in tempo and Towson is 352nd. Delaware’s likely to lose ground in the possession battle thanks to offensive rebounds, where Towson ranks over 300 spots higher in ORB% and the Tigers are also better at taking care of the ball and also forcing takeaways.

I like the tenacity of the Tigers in close games as well, of which they have gone 8-2 in games decided by six or fewer points. Delaware is 5-4 and, again, we are talking about a much tougher schedule on the whole for Towson and in league play. The Tigers are in great form, moving up 76 spots in Haslametrics’ ratings over the last 30 days and 26 in the last week.

Pick: Towson -2.5

Georgia Southern Eagles at Troy Trojans (-11.5, 144.5)

7 p.m. ET

I’m expecting a bit of a frantic and frenetic game tonight in the Fun Belt between Georgia Southern and Troy. These are two teams that turn the ball over a lot and also force a lot of turnovers. According to Haslametrics’ “PPSC” metric, which is about potential quick points off second-chance offensive rebounds, these are two top-50 teams in the nation.

Furthermore, Troy is a top-20 team in potential quick points off breakaway steals, or “PPSt”. Georgia Southern is a team that pushes the pace, ranking 42nd in adjusted tempo per Torvik, so I think Troy can get some run-outs here for easy buckets. The Trojans are also seventh in the nation in ORB% and the Eagles are 129th. Neither team does well on the defensive glass.

Both teams have very high Rim & 3 rates, with Troy at 92.3% in terms of Close Two shot attempts and 3-point attempts per Torvik. Georgia Southern is at 86.5% in that department. So, we should get the right kind of shot selection, along with the possibility for some fast-break points.

The Eagles also foul at one of the highest rates in the country and the spread would suggest a game state where head coach Charlie Henry instructs his team to foul to try and extend the game.

We should get a lot of possessions, offensive rebounds, turnovers, shots in transition, and 3-point attempts in this one.

Pick: Over 144.5

Portland State Vikings at Montana Grizzlies (-3.5, 147.5)

9 p.m. ET

We’ve got plenty of Big Sky battles tonight in one of my favorite conferences to handicap. Tonight’s spotlight game for me is Portland State and Montana, as the Vikings head to Billings to face the Grizzlies. Both teams have played well in conference action so far, with Montana sporting a 6-2 record and Portland State at 5-2.

The main reference point that I am looking at here is Montana’s Jan. 18 loss to Idaho State. The Bengals are not a great team by any means, and neither is Portland State, but Idaho State is one of the nation’s top offensive rebounding teams. While the Vikings aren’t top five in ORB% like Idaho State, they are in the top 35. And they’re a much more efficient offensive team. Idaho State is 279th in 2P% and 341st in 3P%. Portland State is 151st in 2P% and 198th in 3P%. They also get to the rim at a much higher rate than Idaho State, who seems to squander some of those ORebs.

In that game in question, Montana lost 86-61 and gave up 1.311 points per possession, as the Bengals had 12 offensive rebounds and went 16-of-23 on 2s. So, I expect that Portland State, with a 49% shot share on Close Twos that ranks fifth in the nation, will get those high-percentage looks and second-chance points.

It is also worth noting that the Vikings have held opponents to 22.5% from 3 in league play, so it could be tough sledding from beyond the arc for Montana. The Grizzlies are the worst offensive rebounding team in the conference, so if they’re not shooting well, expect a lot of one-and-done possessions. Portland State also forces more turnovers.

I’ll take the 3.5, but I do think the Vikings are live for the upset and maybe this is a game where a 90/10 or 80/20 spread/moneyline split is warranted. Portland State is up 61 spots in Haslametrics’ ratings over the last 30 days and up 31 spots in the last seven, which ranks fifth in the nation.

Pick: Portland State +3.5