College basketball schedule today has 79 games
The Thursday night slate is a good one with several marquee games, including an excellent mid-major tilts featuring UAB vs. Florida Atlantic. Teams are getting into more of a rhythm now, as they’re playing games on a regular schedule. The exams and holidays often lead to long layoffs upwards of a week or more. Athletes are creatures of habit and getting back to normal should be beneficial for all involved.
Along with a big card on the college hardwood, we’ve got four games, including a TNT doubleheader in the NBA, and a 10-pack on the ice. See what JVT has for today’s NBA best bets and Andy MacNeil has you covered with his daily NHL picks.
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Here are some thoughts on the January 5 card (odds from DraftKings):
Charlotte 49ers (-4.5, 135) at FIU Panthers
Conference USA is one of the nation’s strongest mid-majors and a team like Charlotte is a big reason why. The 49ers are a road favorite against FIU and this line should be a couple ticks higher in my estimation. We do have a pace war here, as Charlotte is one of the slowest teams in the nation and FIU is one of the fastest, but the 49ers being pushed out of their comfort zone should help them win by greater margin.
Charlotte ranks in the top 25 in 3P% against Division I opponents per Bart Torvik and in the top 35 in 2P% at 38.1% and 55.1%, respectively. FIU, despite being a top-20 team in 2P% at 56.5%, ranks 274th in adjusted offensive efficiency because of turnover issues (337th in TO%) and an anemic 29.7% success rate on 3s. The Panthers are also one of the 50 worst free throw shooting teams in the country.
Charlotte’s biggest defensive issue has been the 3-point line, but FIU doesn’t have many outside shooters capable of making shots. To that end, FIU has allowed opponents to shoot 39.1% from 3, so Charlotte’s sharpshooters should be in line for a good game. Add in a Charlotte team salting this one away from the free throw line with a 74.2% success rate and I think the 49ers take care of business in the Sunshine State.
Pick: Charlotte -4.5
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Rice Owls (-2, 154)
We’ve got a high total for this Conference USA clash, but it is deserved to say the least. These two teams rank in the top 52 according to Ken Pomeroy in adjusted tempo, with Rice ranked 32nd. These are also two teams that are far more adept offensively than they are defensively. Louisiana Tech ranks 340th in the nation in eFG% defense against Division I opponents per Bart Torvik. Opponents are shooting over 39% from 3 and over 52% on 2s.
Rice ranks 299th in eFG% defense, as opponents are shooting 54.5% on 2s and 35% from 3. Louisiana Tech gets inside quite a bit, as their shot share on Close Twos is 41.9%. They are one of those “rim and 3” offensive teams that try to avoid mid-range jumpers whenever possible. That should lead to a lot of fruitful trips against a bad Rice defense.
Rice’s offense doesn’t go to the rim as much, but has taken a 3 on 42.6% of field goal attempts. Given how poorly Louisiana Tech has defended the perimeter, that should also be a bountiful offensive strategy. Louisiana Tech is also very aggressive about fouling when trailing, so if Rice, who is riding a nice high right now with 10 wins in the last 11 games, keeps the momentum going, the Owls should get to the stripe a fair amount. Both teams are also above average at the free throw line.
It’s a big number, but these are two good offenses and two bad defenses in a game that should be played over 70 possessions. DraftKings has the high number in the market at 154, so look for a 153.5 most other places.
Pick: Over 153.5 (widely available)
Montana Grizzlies (-2.5, 138) at Northern Arizona Wildcats
In a battle of bad defenses, one of them is demonstrably worse in this game between Montana and Northern Arizona. The worse defense belongs to the home underdog, who ranks 321st in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom and 326th per Torvik. NAU has played a much tougher schedule than Montana, but this is a defense allowing opponents to shoot almost 37% from 3 and over 56% on 2s.
Over 42% of opponents’ shots have been Close Twos against NAU. On the flip side, only 32.6% of opponents’ shots against Montana have been Close Twos. The Montana offense has been really solid lately, averaging at least 1.089 points per possession in each of the last six games, including a game against Gonzaga.
This is another one of those short favorite roles where free throw shooting is likely to be important. Montana is shooting almost 78% at the stripe this season. If they have a lead late, they should be able to maintain or lengthen it. Northern Arizona’s strength of schedule is inflated from playing Michigan State, Arizona State, Utah Valley twice and Texas, but most of those games were early in the season and their defense has not improved, including 1.214 and 1.144 PPP allowed in two Big Sky Conference games thus far.
Pick: Montana -2.5
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