College Basketball Best Bets Today:

Today is one of the best days of the college basketball season. We have 48 games spread across the entire day and every one of them has meaning during the conference tournaments. People have thought I’m crazy for saying this, but I prefer the Thursday and Friday of conference championship week to the NCAA Tournament, at least from a betting standpoint. You get all-day hoops, in higher volume, and you actually have data points to refer to when it comes to breaking down the matchup.

As I said yesterday, with the time difference and the start time of the article, I feel like lead time is important for the readers, so I don’t even look at the early starts, focusing instead on evening and nighttime tip-offs. Greg Peterson has you covered with overnight best bets and some of those early games.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Boise State Broncos (-2.5, 134.5) vs. San Diego State Aztecs

5:30 p.m. ET

Boise State and San Diego State square off in the quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament today, as they’ll play in the second of four games at Thomas & Mack Center. Most of the market is -2 on this game, so that’s how I’ll grade it, even though DraftKings has 2.5 with some pretty heavy juice on the San Diego State side.

I don’t think it’ll matter because I think the wrong team is favored here. San Diego State won both regular season meetings, with a 76-68 win in Boise and a 64-47 win in San Diego. According to Erik Haslam’s “Away From Home” stat at Haslametrics, Boise State was not only the worst team in the MWC at -4.17, but a bottom-six team in the nation. They have not played well away from the friendly confines to say the least.

This just isn’t a good matchup for them in my opinion. San Diego State has forced opponents into a 3-pointer on 46.7% of their shot attempts. Boise State is a 31% team from 3. Where the Broncos do succeed is at the rim with a 65.2% FG% on Close Twos, but San Diego State’s 31.8% shot share against on Close Twos ranks in the top 25 nationally.

San Diego State was the No 1 defense in the conference in 2P%, 3P%, eFG%, TO%, and adjusted defensive efficiency. Offense can be a struggle at times, but their strong defensive numbers to force a lot of long jumpers against a team playing in a road venue makes the difference to me.

Like I said, DK is +2.5 with heavy juice on SDSU if you want to go that route, but I’ll grade it at +2.

Pick: San Diego State +2

Baylor Bears vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (-6.5, 141.5)

7 p.m. ET

Baylor is back on the T-Mobile Center floor for a second straight day after a fine effort against Kansas State in a 70-56 win. The Wildcats had some moments this season, but the most expensive roster in college basketball ultimately fell very flat. With that, the Bears step up in class in a big way today against Texas Tech.

Baylor has not fared well at all stepping up in class. They enter this game 1-10 against Quadrant 1-A opponents and 5-11 against all Q1 foes. That includes a 14-point loss to Texas Tech in Lubbock back on Feb. 4. Per Haslametrics’ “Paper Tiger Factor” metric, Baylor is the worst team in the nation when stepping up in class relative to their overall season-long performance.

As far as the matchup itself, Texas Tech is a much better team when it comes to jump shots. The Red Raiders are 19th in the nation in 3P% per Torvik and 49th in 2P%. Baylor is 117th and 170th, respectively, in those two metrics. Neither team gets to the rim at a high rate, as both squads have shot shares on Close Twos under 30%. But, Texas Tech has a higher shooting percentage from the mid-range and a higher shooting percentage on 3s, while also defending both of those shot types more effectively.

Also, while Baylor ranks in the top 75 in TO%, Texas Tech has been one of the 35 best teams at protecting the rock. They’re also a better defensive rebounding team, so they should have an advantage on the glass as well. Lastly, the Red Raiders are a 77% free throw shooting team if a parade to the line happens late and they have four guys shooting 81% or better at the stripe that play significant minutes.

Pick: Texas Tech -6.5

Alcorn State Braves vs. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats (-2.5, 134.5)

8:30 p.m. ET

Alcorn State and Bethune-Cookman battle it out in quarterfinal action in the SWAC Tournament. The Braves won both regular season meetings, but the Wildcats might have an ace in the hole for this one. Second-leading scorer Brayon Freeman came back and scored 18 points in 19 minutes with five assists in the regular season finale against Florida A&M, a 76-75 win over the Rattlers.

Freeman, who averages 16.4 PPG, missed both regular season games. Without him, Bethune-Cookman had .934 and 1.078 points per possession. Even missing Freeman most of the conference play part of the regular season, the Wildcats finished third in eFG% in SWAC play, while finishing second in 2P% and fifth in 3P%. I think he should help them in this one.

But, I also think Alcorn State can score some points here as well. The Braves were the top offensive rebounding team during the regular season in conference play. They were also fourth in 2P%. They struggled with 3s, but that shouldn’t be Landon Bussie’s gameplan against the conference’s top 3P% defense anyway.

Alcorn State had 1.072 and 1.136 PPP in the head-to-head games while making eight combined 3s between the two of them. The first game did go Under the total of 134.5 at 131 points. The second game flew Over the total of 136.5 with 152 points. Both totals were bet up at open. This one has been a little bit as well, but we haven’t seen an adjustment to the number with Freeman back for BCU. I think that is a misstep by the oddsmakers.

Pick: Over 134.5

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