College basketball best bets today

One of the best college basketball betting days of the year has arrived. There are 52 games on the board and all of them mean something with conference tournaments in full swing. All day basketball is also a big draw, with tip-offs from 11 a.m. ET to 11:30 p.m. Real ones know conference tournament week is just as good or better than the NCAA Tournament, especially from a betting standpoint.

All 32 conference tournament previews are now posted, as the Ivy League went up this morning. College basketball best bets today are coming your way now, as we hope to continue your awesome experience during our VSiN Pro “Open House” week.

 

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Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.

Here are three college basketball best bets for today.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Providence Friars vs. Creighton Bluejays (-8, 142)

7 p.m. ET

The nighttime sessions of the second round of the Big East Tournament begins with this matchup between Providence and Creighton. The Friars beat Georgetown yesterday in a 74-56 triumph, so they are playing a back-to-back, but they balanced out the minutes a little bit, leading by as many as 18 early in the second half.

Not surprisingly, Providence beat Creighton at home and lost on the road. The Bluejays are a jump-shooting team and I’m always concerned about those teams, especially away from home. Creighton shot 38.5% on 3s at home during the season and 34.3% in road/neutral games. They’re still a good team and went 9-6 away from home, but their shooting prowess definitely dropped off.

The Big East Tournament is well-known for Unders in the tough shooting backdrop that is Madison Square Garden. With Creighton’s heavy reliance on the 3 (49% 3P Rate) and inability to force turnovers at 11.3%, I think it’s tough to win a game like this by significant margin.

I like that the Friars have played a game on the floor already and in the big venue. I also like that in the two head-to-head meetings, Providence had 53 shot attempts at the rim. They also beat Creighton at home in a game where the Bluejays were 14-of-29 from 3. They had offensive rebounding advantages in both games. I think Kim English’s team keeps this one close today.

Pick: Providence +8

Duquesne Dukes vs. Dayton Flyers (-6.5, 135)

7:30 p.m. ET

Dayton is looking for a clean sweep of the Dukes in this one, as the Flyers topped Duquesne by 10 in January and by 16 in February. Duquesne beat Saint Louis last night, but the Billikens still had 1.083 points per possession without leading scorer Sincere Parker and with Travis Ford fired immediately after the game.

I see a pretty big mismatch in this game. Dayton’s DaRon Holmes III is a matchup nightmare for most teams, but especially Duquesne. In the two regular season meetings, Holmes had 59 points and 23 rebounds in 66 minutes worth of action. He had a 40.9% Usage Rate in the first game when he had 33 and 12. I assume Dayton will ride their workhorse at a high rate given the stakes in play now.

Dayton doesn’t get to the rim a ton, but does convert at a 66.9% rate on Close Twos, whereas Duquesne also has a below average shot share and converts at just 53.3%. The other element here is that Dayton, who is better in 2P% offense and defense, plus 3P% offense and defense, is a 40.7% 3-point shooting team, while Duquesne, who has a 39.6% 3P Rate, is only shooting 33.6%.

If it comes down to it, Dayton has three guys shooting over 81% from the free throw line. The Flyers have had a lot of good teams over the years and they haven’t won this conference tournament since 2003. That’s inexcusable, so there’s some pressure to win this thing, especially after losing to hated rival VCU in last year’s title game. I think they’re highly motivated and this is a good matchup.

Pick: Dayton -6.5

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. UT Arlington Mavericks (-2, 141.5)

11:30 p.m. ET

Stephen F. Austin embodied the expression “survive and advance” last night, as they hit a buzzer-beater 3 to beat Abilene Christian in the first round of WACVegas. 

That’s our own Ben Wilson on the call and what a damn good call it was.

It was certainly an emotional win and I realize people could be worried about the back-to-back factor with SFA today, but I’m not one of them because I think this is a really good matchup for the Lumberjacks. The teams split during the regular season, but SFA was 1-for-15 in UTA’s February 10 win and that was a game that needed overtime. 

In the two games, SFA had 52 shot attempts at the rim, while UT Arlington had 32. Both games were filled with turnovers, but SFA was +5 in TO margin over them. UT Arlington was missing both Phillip Russell and DaJuan Gordon in the first game, but they still needed SFA to shoot a ridiculously awful percentage to win the second game with those two. 

I also like SFA’s coaching advantage with the more battle-tested Kyle Keller over first-year HC KT Turner. I think that plays a role at this time of the year.

Pick: Stephen F. Austin +2

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