College Basketball Best Bets Today:
One of the greatest sports days of the year is upon us, as we have the true start of the NCAA Tournament. We had two thrillers in the First Four, but the First Round begins today and now we get the goods. A full day of basketball, betting, beers, buddies, and whatever else you use to enjoy the day.
Here are my favorite evening plays for Thursday in hopes of giving everybody enough lead time to check out the article.
Our March Mania Betting Guide is now available to VSiN Pro subscribers, which you can become for the low cost of $9.99 for the first month. We also have previews of every NCAA Tournament game coming your way as things progress.
Now, let’s get to today’s action and my favorite plays of the evening slate.
Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.
This article will run every day with CBB games through the end of the season. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
UC San Diego Tritons vs. Michigan Wolverines (-2.5, 142.5)
10 p.m. ET
UC San Diego is a very popular pick here and a mid-major darling, but as the Selection Committee often does, I think that this is a calculated decision to pair them with Michigan in hopes of getting rid of a very dangerous team from outside a Power Five conference.
Michigan’s high turnover rate is absolutely a concern and something that a lot of people have correctly pointed out as a potential problem for the Wolverines. However, this is a Tritons team with limited height and the Wolverines have two 7-footers in Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf. I’m not sure how UCSD can match up there. Michigan has a 43% shot share on Close Twos and has only allowed a 28.8% shot share in that area. That will force UCSD to defend the paint and take a lot of 3s.
While they’re an excellent 3-point shooting team, Big West opponents ranked 27th, 213th, 221st, 245th, 250th, 266th, 272nd, 289th, 290th, and 356th in 3P% defense. The length of Michigan to extend the defense is going to be problematic for the Tritons, who I think could get into foul trouble on the interior in this game as well, which could hurt some of their inside-out ability.
Pick: Michigan -2.5
UNC Wilmington Seahawks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (-14.5, 143.5)
10:10 p.m. ET
The Seahawks and Red Raiders battle it out in Wichita for a spot in the second round. I love this Texas Tech team and I have them making a deep run, but I think today’s game could be a bit close for comfort against a really solid UNC Wilmington squad.
I talked about this in our March Mania Betting Guide, but UNCW sees a lot of different styles of play in the CAA. They’re an adaptable, very well-coached team. Texas Tech is playing a little bit faster than I would have expected under Grant McCasland, but they’re still in the 270s in adjusted tempo per Torvik, while UNCW is in the 290s.
It’s going to take a supreme level of efficiency on both ends of the floor to cover here in what looks like a game played to around 65ish possessions. Texas Tech is plenty capable of it, as their shooting numbers are much stronger than what UNCW has. But, the Red Raiders only get to the rim on about 29% of their shots. They’re very reliable on the 3 and not super creative with their offensive half-court sets. That’s something else that should allow the Seahawks to stick around in a low-possession game, as Texas Tech tries to make distance jumpers in an unfamiliar setting.
Pick: UNC Wilmington +14.5
