College basketball best bets today
The Sweet 16 takes center stage in the college basketball world today. With champions already decided in the CBI and CIT and some travel in the NIT, it is all about the four biggest games of the night. We’ve got all of them previewed here at VSiN.com with some matchup analysis and info on tip times and networks for tonight’s action.
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One of those games stands out more to me than the others.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.
Here is one college basketball best bet for today.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (-4.5, 173.5)
The highest total on the board by more than 20 points should be a fun one between Alabama and North Carolina. This is a pretty simple handicap for me, though, admittedly, nothing has come easy here in March. One team plays defense and the other team doesn’t.
The Tar Heels rank 20th per Bart Torvik in adjusted offensive efficiency and 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Crimson Tide rank fourth in offense, but 103rd in defense. Neither team forces any turnovers, so there will be a lot of made shots and a lot of points in this game. I don’t love that UNC takes a much higher rate of mid-range jumpers than Bama, but UNC also has a much lower shot share against on Close Twos and forces teams into a lot of tough jump shots.
This is a UNC crew that ranks 20th in 2P% defense per Torvik, whereas Alabama ranks 199th. I realize there’s a chance of Alabama scoring by 3s with a 46.6% 3P Rate and UNC scoring by 2s with a 35.9% 3P Rate, but I’ll trust the team that plays defense in an unfamiliar, first-time setting for these two teams.
North Carolina also won’t be put off by Alabama’s pace. UNC’s win over Michigan State was more impressive than either of Alabama’s wins and I definitely like that the Tar Heels went 9-3 in Quadrant 1 games and 5-2 in Quad 1-A games, while Alabama was 4-10 in Q1 games and 2-8 in Q1-A games.
Pick: North Carolina -4.5
