College Basketball Best Bets Today:

We have a big college hoops slate on Thursday with 53 games, including lots of conference tournament action. The West Coast Conference and Missouri Valley Conference Tournaments get underway, plus we have continued action in the Horizon, Sun Belt, Atlantic Sun, and Ohio Valley. Remember, we’re previewing them all here at VSiN.com, so keep checking back to see the latest write-ups.

We also have regular season action in the Big Ten, C-USA, WAC, AAC, Big West, MAAC, MEAC, and SWAC as part of today’s menu. That’s a lot of college basketball spread across the country and throughout the day, with a 1 p.m. ET tip at Arch Madness to start the day’s festivities.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Fort Wayne Mastodons at Youngstown State Penguins (-1.5, 154.5)

7 p.m. ET

The Quarterfinals of the Horizon League Tournament feature games on campus sites, so No. 5 Fort Wayne had to travel to No. 4 Youngstown State for this one. These two teams split the regular season meetings, with the games landing on 171 and 164, as Youngstown State scored 93 points in a 22-point victory last time out.

So far in three Horizon League games, we’ve seen the final scores land 168, 174, and 183, so defense has very much been optional in the conference thus far. I would expect the same here in this one. In the first game, there were 61 combined shot attempts at the rim and 56 3-point attempts. Collectively, there were only 13 mid-range jumpers attempted, so the Rim & 3 Rates of both teams were very high and that’s the right type of shot selection for points.

Even though there were only nine total offensive rebounds, the teams were able to light up the scoreboard. In the second game, there were 43 shot attempts at the rim and 63 3-pointers taken. But, Youngstown State did adjust, as Fort Wayne was forced into 14 mid-range jumpers, which is a big reason why the Penguins won in blowout fashion. That game did have 21 offensive rebounds, though.

Jalen Jackson (19.9 PPG) missed the regular season finale for Fort Wayne with an “upper body injury”, but that game didn’t really matter much, and I’d expect him back tonight. We’ll see if Youngstown State can get back EJ Farmer, who is recovering from being sick. Regardless, even without Farmer in the last three games, Youngstown State has 1.062, 1.104, and 1.129 points per possession.

The other thing about this game and other conference tournament games is fouling. This is a win or go home game. Youngstown State has a terrible free throw shooter in 7-foot-3 Gabe Dynes, but the guards and small forwards all shoot free throws well. Fort Wayne is over 75% as a team. If we get free throws here, I expect the teams to knock them down.

I also like Youngstown State here because of how well first-year head coach Ethan Faulkner adjusted for the second game. They picked apart Fort Wayne’s defense with 1.342 PPP and held them to just 1.024 by getting them away from the rim.

Picks: Youngstown State -1.5; Over 154.5

Utah Valley Wolverines (-3, 140) at Abilene Christian Wildcats

8 p.m. ET

Utah Valley has a chance to lock up at least a share of the WAC regular season title tonight, as the Wolverines head to Abilene to take on the Wildcats. This is the type of game where Utah Valley should have a massive advantage on the interior and a strong head coach like Todd Phillips should be able to exploit that opportunity.

The Wolverines are ninth in the nation in shot share on Close Twos. Abilene Christian has the seventh-highest shot share against on Close Twos. While the Wildcats do a decent job of getting to the rim themselves, Utah Valley’s rim protection is far better, as they’ve allowed a 52.6% FG% on those types of shots compared to ACU’s 58.7%. So we have a scenario where Utah Valley should get more chances at the rim and also be more efficient.

The Wolverines are also the far better rebounding team on both ends of the floor, so that should lead to some second-chance opportunities. UVU is the best offense in the conference and the best at taking care of the basketball, which neutralizes Abilene Christian’s top defensive attribute, which is forcing turnovers. This may be a rare game in which the Wildcats actually lose the turnover battle.

While ACU is the conference’s top 3-point defense team, Utah Valley doesn’t take a lot of 3s. Though when they do, they’re shooting nearly 37% and rank second in the conference in that metric. 

In the first meeting, Utah Valley won the turnover battle 19-17, won at the rim going 18-of-30 on Close Twos, while Abilene Christian was 9-of-29. It was a 64-53 win for the Wolverines and I think they complete the regular season sweep tonight.

DraftKings has -2.5 at -120, so I’ll grade this at -3, since the rest of the market is there.

Pick: Utah Valley -3

Lindenwood Lions vs. Tennessee State Tigers (-4.5, 146.5)

9:30 p.m. ET

The OVC Quarterfinals feature Lindenwood vs. Tennessee State in Evansville, as the Tigers play their first game and the Lions play their second. Lindenwood beat Morehead State 73-65 yesterday, but they were 28-of-28 at the free throw line in the win, including an 17-for-17 from Reggie Bass.

From the floor, Lindenwood was just 21-of-47 on 2s and 1-of-15 on 3s. We’ll see if they shoot better here today, but I really like this Tennessee State team. They finished the regular season second in adjusted offensive efficiency, even with nearly a 22% TO%. That’s because they made so many shots, got to the free throw line a lot, and pulled down a lot of ORebs. Lindenwood was 10th in offensive efficiency and dead last in 3P%, as evidenced by what we saw from the floor yesterday.

It’s also a back-to-back for Lindenwood, who is a bit better on the defensive end, and that’s where the tired legs may show up. Tennessee State is a physical team with their conference-leading FT Rate and penchant for playing well on the glass. I think that helps to wear Lindenwood down.

The teams split in the regular season, as Brian Collins’ crew went from .839 PPP in the first game to 1.175 PPP in the second game and that was without Brandon Weston, who has missed the last seven games.

Pick: Tennessee State -4.5

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