College Basketball Best Bets Today:

The fourth day of the 2024-25 college basketball season is here. There are 23 games on the board tonight and that was a magic number last night with a 3-0 sweep, including Columbia +17 and Eastern Washington +8 outright as underdogs. It would make the tracking too convoluted and messy, but if you are betting underdogs at this time of the year in college basketball, some 5% or 10% moneyline sprinkles along with the spread bets may not be a bad idea.

It is a very inefficient betting market right now because the teams themselves are inefficient with so many new faces, a lot of coaching changes, and limited ability and resources for scouting the other team. Teams are mostly worried about what’s happening in-house and not with their opponents.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks at Penn Quakers (-18.5, 139.5)

7 p.m. ET

The first game on the Added Board is Maryland Eastern Shore and Penn. The Hawks are under new head coach Cleo Hill Jr., who was the head coach of Winston-Salem State University in Division II. His coaching resume shows a strong skill set for being a leader and a motivator and that may be all UMES needs, as they have not been good for quite some time.

Hill’s opening showing was a 39-point loss to Vanderbilt, but his team was -14 in TO margin and -38 points in shots at the rim. Those things won’t happen against Penn, who is going through something of a rebuilding process with a lot of freshmen and transfers playing key minutes. Penn is more of a jump-shooting team and UMES actually held Vandy to 8-of-34 (23.5%) from 3. They just had no answer for Vanderbilt’s bigs and athletic interior, specifically Devin McGlockton, who had 24 points in just 23 minutes.

Penn doesn’t have personnel like that. Penn also played at a snail’s pace in the opener against NJIT, who was a little bit below the national average in pace last season. I think Steve Donahue wants the Quakers to slow it down because they don’t have the same shooters in transition this season.

It is a revenge game for Penn, as UMES beat them 83-80 last season on November 18 in a game where Penn was -10 on the road. Flip home court and I don’t really see how we get to 19 here with all the new faces, transition, and a Penn team that just might be playing slower.

Pick: Maryland Eastern Shore +18.5

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Air Force Falcons (-2.5, 133)

9 p.m. ET

The early part of the season leads to some fascinating matchups and we have one here with Jacksonville State and Air Force. You wouldn’t expect the Gamecocks to go play in the elevation in Colorado Springs, but Ray Harper’s team will play the first roadie of the season at the Academy.

I don’t love this spot for Jacksonville State at all and the market clearly isn’t a fan either as Air Force, who was blown out by North Alabama at home in the opener on Monday, is a favorite in this one. Personally, I’m looking at the Under in this game.

Air Force plays a matchup zone defense for Joe Scott and Jacksonville State is not a team that wants to shoot 3s. In fact, they were 347th in 3P Rate last season at 28.3%. They also ranked 325th in adjusted tempo per Torvik, so they don’t really move with a great sense of urgency. I think we get some long, excruciating possessions in this game that don’t end in baskets for either team.

Jacksonville State has a lot of inefficient shooters and, while I do think 6-foot-10 Mason Nicholson will get his down low, I don’t love the Gamecocks playing at elevation with more of a guard-oriented offensive attack.

Air Force is missing Rytis Petraitis. He had a 29.2% Usage Rate last season, which ranked 79th in the nation per Torvik. Per Torvik’s Adjusted PORPAGATU! (Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game At That Usage) had him as a borderline top 150 player in the nation. He’s gone and Air Force had .909 points per possession against the Lions in the opener. Harper is a good head coach and had just their third season in his tenure with an eFG% defense of 50% or higher out of eight seasons.

I think they recommit to playing defense this season and we see it in a game like this against Air Force, another team that moves at a painfully slow pace.

Pick: Under 133

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