College basketball expert picks and predictions
As promised, we have another ugly college basketball slate on Tuesday, with just 22 games and a lot of huge spreads. Major conference teams schedule down during exam weeks and winter breaks and that often leads to some obscene numbers, like Tennessee laying over 30 against Georgia Southern tonight. This was one of the worst parts of the year for me last season and I’ll be lowering my volume this season as a result.
After looking through today’s card, which includes a lot of really bad and really small conference teams, here’s what I found.
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Here are some thoughts on the December 12 card (odds from DraftKings):
Austin Peay Governors at Southern Illinois Salukis (-11.5, 128.5)
8 p.m. ET
Southern Illinois hosts Austin Peay in a matchup between the Missouri Valley and Atlantic Sun on Tuesday night. This will be a slow-paced game and I’ve typically shied away from taking big favorites in that spot, but there are some dramatic differences in offensive efficiency metrics between these two teams.
Southern Illinois is 30th in the nation in eFG% offense per Bart Torvik, while Austin Peay is 344th. His numbers don’t take into account games against lower-division opponents and those account for three of the Governors’ five wins. They are coming off of a really nice home win against Murray State, but they scored just .925 points per possession in that game and shot 20-of-59 from the floor. Murray State is 345th in the country in TO%, so Austin Peay was able to maintain enough possessions to find a way to win.
Southern Illinois ranks in the top 100 in that department at 19.6%, so they should be able to generate a few takeaways. Austin Peay head coach Corey Gipson, who took over for a solid coach in Matt Figger, came from Northwestern State, where the team focused a lot on generating turnovers. The Governors have a 21.4% TO% on the season, but Southern Illinois has taken good care of the ball. If they do so again, they will cover.
The Salukis are shooting 39.8% from 3 and could be doing better on 2s if they finished at a higher rate on their attempts at the rim. They’ve gotten to the rim for 39.4% of their shots, but have only finished at a 53.7% clip. Austin Peay is 295th in the nation in FG% against on Close Twos.
With their pressure defense, Austin Peay also fouls a ton. Their rotation doesn’t run very deep and Southern Illinois is a good free-throw shooting team. Slow tempo or not, a lot of signs are pointing towards offensive efficiency for the Salukis and the opposite for Austin Peay, who is shooting 43.4% on Close Twos with a low shot share and just 30% on 3s.
Pick: Southern Illinois -11.5
