College Basketball Best Bets Today:

There are 46 games on the college hoops schedule for Tuesday and we have the potential for some bangers. It was a pretty quiet night last night on the hardwood, and that should change tonight. While we don’t have a ton of top-tier games, we have a lot of very good games and ones that could make a difference in March as the Selection Committee is pondering bubble decisions.

I’m less worried about the thrill factor of the game and more worried about finding the ones that present the best betting opportunities. If that’s a big game, that’s great. But I’ve looked through all of today’s games and here’s what I’ve found.

 

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We have a ton of content rolling in here at VSiN on a daily basis, so you may want to bookmark our College Basketball Articles page so you can find this and also Greg Peterson’s top CBB bets of the day.

Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Bradley Braves (-4, 145) at Southern Illinois Salukis

8 p.m. ET

We have quite a scheduling quirk tonight, as Bradley and Southern Illinois play the first conference game of the season. Bradley is laying a road number heading to Carbondale to take on first-year head coach Scott Nagy and his Salukis.

We have a strength of schedule difference here of about 130 spots in favor of the home dog, which is usually something that sparks a line movement, but we haven’t seen a big adjustment here. In fact, what money we have seen appears to favor the Bradley side a bit.

The Braves are the better team, but here’s why I like them in this game. Back on November 22, Bradley played Wright State. They won 77-74 in a neutral setting with 1.249 points per possession. While they did give up 1.201 PPP, Wright State was 9-of-19 from 3 in that game. On the season, Bradley has held opponents to just 28.2% from 3, so that was the one noticeable outlier.

Why does the Wright State game matter? It was against Nagy disciple Clint Sargent, who is probably running a lot of similar schemes and looks to what his predecessor did. So, in a way, Bradley has a head start on the preparation for this game because they’ve seen a lot of the elements Nagy is likely to incorporate.

Southern Illinois has a 47.5% shot share on Close Twos, but they rank 250th in eFG% and 256th in 2P%. I don’t expect them to maintain that kind of shot selection moving forward, and they haven’t really taken advantage of it. This is also a poor jump-shooting team, hitting at just 30.7% from 3 and 26.8% from the mid-range. Bradley, meanwhile, is efficient in all offensive areas.

Pick: Bradley -4

Evansville Aces at Murray State Racers (-13.5, 144.5)

8 p.m. ET

How about this? Another conference game, as Missouri Valley foes come together between Evansville and Murray State. The Racers are off to a nice start, especially on offense, ranking in the top 70 in 2P% and 3P% in games against Division I competition. They’re shooting 36.6% from 3 and 56.4% on 2s. Also, Murray State has a 48.5% shot share on Close Twos, so they’ve been able to get to the rim effectively, leading to a high percentage of made shots.

Evansville is allowing opponents to shoot 68.5% on Close Twos per Torvik, as they don’t have a ton of depth on the interior. They have fouled a lot throughout the course of the season as well.

The Aces take a ton of 3s. David Ragland’s team has a 48.3% 3P Rate, as they’re firing from anywhere. However, they are only shooting 29.2% on those attempts and that includes a 17-of-35 game against Radford. I would expect Evansville to find more success shooting the ball as we go forward. They shot 33.6% last season, so there’s definite room for improvement.

Similarly, I would expect Murray State to drop back a bit in 3P% defense, as they’ve held opponents to just 28.9% from 3 thus far. They were 341st in the nation last year in 3P% defense, so head coach Steve Prohm clearly made it a priority to defend better, but I’m not sure they’ll defend this much better.

Pick: Over 144.5

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