College Basketball Best Bets Today:

Maybe the small Monday slate wasn’t a bad thing with a bit of a Super Bowl hangover, as a small night in the NBA and the 4 Nations Face Off break in the NHL will drive a lot of people to college basketball on Tuesday night. And what a slate we have, highlighted by Tennessee vs. Kentucky, Purdue vs. Michigan, Alabama vs. Texas, and Florida vs. Mississippi State.

Those aren’t the only great games, but they are the top ones on a card that features 37 games in total. The first game tips off at 7 p.m. ET, so East Coasters have plenty of time to get settled in for a night of hoops on the couch.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Alabama Crimson Tide (-3.5, 165.5) at Texas Longhorns

9 p.m. ET

One of those excellent games is actually a game I like tonight between Alabama and Texas. The Crimson Tide are 10-3 on the season against top-50 teams as defined by Haslametrics and Texas fits the bill, coming in ranked 34th. Texas, meanwhile, is 3-9 against top-50 teams. The Crimson Tide rank second to Auburn in Haslametrics’ Record Quality metric. They’re built to beat good teams and have done so.

If we look at conference-only metrics between these two teams, Alabama stands out in every way. Texas is 12th in the SEC in adjusted defensive efficiency and Alabama is eighth, including the best 3P% defense at 28.7%. The Crimson Tide are also second in adjusted offensive efficiency, while Texas is seventh. And Texas’s numbers are a little artificial. They’re actually 10th in 2P% and 3P% offense and 13th in eFG%, but they have the fourth-lowest TO% in conference play.

Alabama isn’t a super aggressive defense when it comes to forcing turnovers, so I’m not super worried about that. They are fourth in 2P% defense to go along with that top-ranked perimeter defense and also have the clear advantages on the glass in this game.

Alabama also gets to the rim at a higher rate, takes a lower percentage of mid-range jumpers, and gets to the free throw line more frequently. Texas’s weak non-conference schedule makes their season-long metrics look better than they are.

Pick: Alabama -3.5

Loyola Marymount Lions (-2.5, 142.5) at Pepperdine Waves

9 p.m. ET

Life in the West Coast Conference is really tough. Both Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine have spent the season getting beaten by Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara, and San Francisco, but they’ve both played pretty well against lesser competition. That being said, the Lions are definitely the better team and are actually second in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency, despite their record against the conference’s top teams.

The Lions are 6-6 in WCC play and have beaten Santa Clara and Oregon State for a couple of those wins. They’ve actually been able to beat some superior competition, whereas Pepperdine has one win this season against a team ranked higher than them in Torvik’s rankings.

Loyola Marymount is second in eFG% defense, second in 2P% defense, and fourth in 3P% defense in WCC play and has played the second-toughest schedule. Pepperdine has played the fourth-ranked slate of opponents and ranks ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency and sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency.

These two teams haven’t played each other yet, but Pepperdine’s body of work is less impressive to me and Stan Johnson’s team has been able to fare better against the non-elites of the conference, as evidenced by the Waves’ ugly loss to Portland 10 days ago.

Pick: Loyola Marymount -2.5

Air Force Falcons at UNLV Rebels (-13.5, 135.5)

10 p.m. ET

Mountain West action at Thomas & Mack Center features Air Force and UNLV. This is a rematch of the Dec. 31 game between these two teams, which UNLV won by 19 in Colorado Springs. They led by as many as 28 in the second half and had a 24.4% TO% in the game, which is still their highest in a MWC game this season.

This should be something of a get-right game for UNLV after getting revenge on Wyoming in Laramie over the weekend to end a five-game losing streak. They locked it down on defense there, holding the Cowboys to .896 points per possession. In the first meeting with Air Force, the UNLV defense had their best performance of conference play, holding the Falcons to .832 PPP.

I’m expecting something similar tonight, but with a little bit more offense from the Rebels. They’re highly unlikely to have a 24% TO% here and should have a big edge in the turnover department. Air Force has turned it over on over 22% of their conference possessions and UNLV is fourth in the conference with a TO% of 18.3%.

The Rebels don’t have the advantage on the glass often, but they should here and should be able to improve upon their 3P% by shooting at home in the friendly confines. Air Force has scored .872, .891, .988, .972, and .695 PPP in their last five games while allowing 1.307, 1.214, 1.158, 1.199, and 1.154 PPP. That’s the recipe for a blowout and exactly what I think we get here.

Pick: UNLV -13.5

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