College basketball best bets for Tuesday
The Tuesday slate brings us 31 college basketball games, as a lot of major conferences get back in action. Unlike yesterday, where there were some afternoon games mixed into the MLK Day holiday, all of the games are in primetime but one, as Florida and Tennessee play a 4 p.m. local time tilt in Knoxville.
What this slate lacks in volume, it makes up for in quality, as there are some very good games on the docket for tonight. As you know, I’m not looking for the exciting games or the TV games, I’m looking for the ones that I perceive to have the best value. As always, check out the college basketball odds and college basketball betting splits for more info. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results.
Ball State Cardinals (-1, 141) at Eastern Michigan Eagles
7 p.m. ET
Tuesday night MACtion: Basketball Edition features Ball State and Eastern Michigan, as we’ve seen a mild flipped favorite role here, as EMU was -1 and now Ball State is +1. These are two teams with some really bad defensive numbers, but one team has a better offense and it is Ball State.
EMU’s defense ranks 330th in eFG% and 339th in 2P%, while Ball State is 293rd in eFG% defense and 244th in 2P%. The Cardinals are worse from a 3P% standpoint, but Eastern Michigan is shooting 32.5% (216th) and has a 3P Rate of just 31.5% (308th), so they aren’t particularly adept at shooting 3s and don’t really take a lot of them.
Ball State, meanwhile, does like to shoot 3s and does make them. They’re shooting 36.5% from 3 with a 39.8% 3P Rate. That is something I really like with the handicap in this one. This is a low-possession game in all likelihood, with the two teams 307th and 321st in adjusted tempo. Ball State can score by 3s and Eastern Michigan is more likely to score by 2s with most of their possessions, if they score at all.
These are two teams that struggle to get to the rim, but Ball State does have a higher shot share on Close Twos (31% to 28.9% per Bart Torvik) and the Cardinals are the better interior defense (58% FG% on Close Twos vs. 64.1%).
Ball State has played Kent State, Akron, and Toledo, so they’ve already played three of the better MAC teams, while Ball State has been blown out by Central Michigan and Miami (OH) over the last two games. I think a step down for Ball State is a good thing here.
Pick: Ball State -1
Temple Owls at SMU Mustangs (-13.5, 138.5)
8 p.m. ET
AAC rivals meet in Dallas, as Temple and SMU exchange pleasantries at Moody Coliseum. Temple is riding a string of seven games with fewer than a point per possession, as they’ve scored .802, .934, .804, .925, .916, .990, and .889 over their last seven games, with the last four data points coming in conference play.
Scoring will be hard to come by in this game for Temple as well, as SMU is fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency, second in eFG% defense, third in 2P%, and first in 3P% per Bart Torvik. The Mustangs have been terrific on the defensive end and their offensive numbers are good enough to give them a chance at covering here. They are 142nd in the nation in 2P% offense and 85th in 3P% offense in games against Division I opponents.
Temple is 352nd in 2P% and 324th in 3P%, so I don’t think SMU needs to light the scoreboard up to be able to sniff a cover in this game. Temple is shooting 49.9% on Close Twos and SMU is holding opponents to 50.4% on those shots, so I don’t think that’s a viable scoring method. Temple is also shooting 29.6% from 3 against a defense holding opponents to 26.1% from deep.
Meanwhile, SMU can make some 3s and does get the luxury of playing at home in this one. I am hoping that Temple’s Steve Settle III (8.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG) ends up sitting out here again after sitting out the North Texas loss, but even if he plays, SMU’s interior defense has been really strong. If he is out again, SMU’s solid offensive rebounding numbers come into play in a big way. Either way, I still think they can cover, as Temple takes a lot of ill-advised shots and I could see them barely cracking 60 or not even getting there tonight.
Pick: SMU -13.5
