College Basketball Best Bets Today:

We go from 22 games to 29, but have a lot more household names on the schedule for Tuesday. After Monday’s volume was dominated by the Southland, SWAC, and MEAC, today brings us more Division I football conferences and therefore a lot more familiarity with the colleges and universities that will be taking the floor.

In fact, we have the SEC, ACC, Big 12, MAC, AAC, and Mountain West that fall into that category, plus obviously well-known basketball conferences with the Big East, A-10, and Missouri Valley. A lot of variety is the spice of life and that’s what we have on today’s slate.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Miami (OH) RedHawks (-10, 153)

7 p.m. ET

Remember when Temple was under scrutiny for some suspicious betting activity and then went and made a run to the AAC Tournament finals with four wins in four days after entering the postseason with a 12-19 record?

Well, this isn’t exactly the same, but Eastern Michigan is under investigation for some weird betting activity and they’ve rattled off three really good offensive efforts since the game in question, a Jan. 14 loss to Central Michigan. The Eagles have scored 1.000, 1.233, and 1.267 points per possession in their last three games.

They are still a very bad defensive team, allowing at least 1.084 PPP in five of their seven conference games and at least 1.141 in four of them. That doesn’t bode well with a trip to Oxford to take on Miami (OH), as the RedHawks rank 28th in the nation in eFG% offense. They are 31st in 2P% and 61st in 3P%.

Eastern Michigan is actually 113th in 2P% and 107th in 3P%, so they’ve made a lot of shots as well. However, they are 297th in 2P% defense and 344th in 3P% defense. Miami is 319th in 2P%. As long as we get some pace in this game, we should get a lot of shot volume and a lot of good looks. Both teams shoot well from 3 and rank below the national average by a good margin in defense from that area of the floor.

Five of EMU’s MAC games have had at least 71 possessions and the same can be said for Miami, who just played a game to 76 possessions against Akron.

Pick: Over 153

Southern Illinois Salukis (-1, 150.5) at Valparaiso Beacons

8 p.m. ET

Missouri Valley Conference action takes us to Valparaiso, where the Beacons and Salukis come together for the first of two meetings. The loser gets a crack at retribution on Feb. 22, but we’ll have to wait and see which team that will be. Personally, I think it will be Valpo, who comes in having lost five straight, including three by double digits.

Valpo hasn’t defended well in that span, especially over the last three games, allowing 1.160, 1.283, and 1.062 points per possession. The timing couldn’t be worse because first-year head coach Scott Nagy seems to be figuring it out with his roster. The Salukis have won four of their last five, but have scored 1.222, 1.168, 1.117, 1.209, .985, and 1.231 points per possession in their last six games.

The rough offensive performance came in a game where they were just 3-of-20 from 3. They only had .788 PPP against Illinois State before that six-game run, but star Kennard Davis Jr. missed that game.

Shot selection plays a big role here for me. Southern Illinois has a shot share on Close Twos of 45.8%, which ranks 21st in the nation. Valpo is 336th in the nation in shot share against on Close Twos and 325th in FG% on those shots. I would expect the Salukis to get and convert a lot of high-percentage shot attempts at the rim. Given that Valpo is only shooting 56% on Close Twos and only has a 34.3% shot share, that is a huge advantage for the visitors.

Lastly, Valpo is only shooting 30.2% from 3, which ranks 304th per Torvik in games against Division I opponents. Southern Illinois is the better 3-point shooting team and projects to find a lot more success inside the arc.

Pick: Southern Illinois -1

Oklahoma Sooners at Texas A&M Aggies (-8.5, 144.5)

9 p.m. ET

We wrap up in College Station, where Texas A&M hosts Oklahoma. These two teams already played earlier this season in Norman and Texas A&M came away with an 80-78 win after digging an 18-point hole early in the second half. Buzz Williams’ squad made the right adjustments and Oklahoma stopped going nuclear from 3.

It is a bad sign for me when a team loses the first head-to-head meeting despite a major outlier. In this case, it was the Sooners going 14-of-24 from 3, including a 9-of-11 performance from Brycen Goodine, who led the way with 34 points. He only has three other games in double figures and two have been against Lindenwood and Alcorn State.

Texas A&M had 17 offensive rebounds to just eight for the Sooners and had half of the turnovers (18 to 9). The Aggies also had 27 shot attempts at the rim compared to just 12 for the Sooners. Texas A&M had 13 steals and didn’t even have Wade Taylor IV in that first meeting.

With their leading assist man and second-leading scorer in the lineup against a team that they already beat once with some favorable numbers on the stat sheet, I like the Aggies tonight.

Pick: Texas A&M -8.5

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