College Basketball Best Bets Today:
Happy NCAA Tournament Day! The first set of play-in games in Dayton kick off the Big Dance tonight, while the rest of the card is made up of first-round action from the NIT. The NIT is the first of three other postseason tournaments, with the CBI starting next week and the College Basketball Crown in Las Vegas beginning March 31.
I’ve previewed the NIT, including a couple of futures I like. I’ll preview the CBI this weekend and the CBC when it gets closer. Our March Mania Betting Guide is now available to VSiN Pro subscribers, which you can become for the low cost of $9.99 for the first month. We also have previews of every NCAA Tournament game coming your way as things progress.
Now, let’s get to today’s action and my favorite play of the day with nine games on the slate.
Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.
This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Cal State Northridge Matadors vs. Stanford Cardinal (-6.5, 154.5)
11 p.m. ET
Like all of the NIT games tonight, we’ve seen heavy Over money to drive up the total for this tilt in Palo Alto. As these postseason tournaments that aren’t the Big Dance get deeper, you see things a little more buttoned up. Early on, though, players are looking to fill the stat sheet and you often see the tempo increase a little bit, while the defensive effort decreases a bit.
We should have two motivated teams here, as Stanford hasn’t played postseason basketball since 2018 and head coach Kyle Smith can point to NIT champions from 2012 and 2015 under Johnny Dawkins as some inspiration. Cal State Northridge played in the 2019 CBI, but they’ve never played in the NIT.
The chief reasons for taking Stanford are pretty clear. The first is that I don’t see anybody on the Northridge roster who can match up with 7-foot-2 Maxime Raynaud, who has the chance to keep impressing scouts in hopes of getting selected in the NBA Draft. Fellow senior Jaylen Blakes emerged as a leader for the Cardinal and is a great facilitator of the offense. This is a Cardinal crew that struggled badly with all of the travel in ACC play, as they were a bottom-25 team in Haslametrics’ Away From Home rating. They are at home tonight.
The other reason is because Northridge’s best player, Marcus Adams Jr., rolled his ankle in the Big West Tournament game against UC Santa Barbara He tried to come back in the second half, but could only muster four minutes. He had ice on his ankle and his knee on the bench. I’m sure he’ll try to give it a go tonight, but at 6-foot-8, he might have to deal with Raynaud. If not him, maybe 6-foot-6 Keonte Jones, who was the team’s rebounder and shot blocker, but he’s giving up a lot of height.
The Matadors were awesome on the glass and do a great job of getting to the rim. Those two things are much more difficult against an ACC member like Stanford. Also, the Matadors do everything they can to push teams to the outside, as they allowed the third-highest 3P Rate in the nation. In 18 home games, Stanford was 16-2, due in large part to a 35.9% 3P%.
I don’t think Northridge has the firepower here against a major-conference opponent in what will be just their second game against one of those this season, though UC San Diego and UC Irvine are terrific teams. They lost 90-69 to USC on Dec. 18.
Pick: Stanford -6.5
