College Basketball Best Bets Today:

It is a busy night on the college basketball hardwood with 56 Division I vs. Division I games and 24 other D-I teams are in action to face lower-division schools. We’re getting more and more data points with each passing day to get us into the flows and rhythms of the season. College hoops can be a tough nut to crack, especially because when you think you have a good read on what’s happening, we get into mid-December with exam weeks and winter breaks.

But, we’re still more than a month away from that and now we’re just grinding each day to find the best games with the best betting opportunities. We do have the Champions Classic today with Michigan State vs. Kansas and Duke vs. Kentucky. I’m not on those games, but I’m sure they’ll be heavily bet contests.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Towson Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks (-8, 134)

7 p.m. ET

Two teams that like to move at a very slow pace get together at Colonial Life Arena in Columbia tonight, as Towson visits South Carolina. The Tigers went on the road to Moraga, California to open the season against Saint Mary’s and played really well in the 76-69 loss before beating lower-division Penn State-Wilkes Barre by 55 last time out.

South Carolina lost to North Florida to open the season, as the Birds of Trey went 10-of-29 from 3 to pull the upset. The Gamecocks got back on track by pummeling South Carolina State by 22. But, I don’t think they’ll find nearly as much offensive success here. Per Torvik, SC’s opponents thus far have been 207th and 297th and teams that finished 312th and 237th in adjusted defensive efficiency last season. And SCSU was only there because they were 13th in the nation in TO%. Opponents shot 53.3% on 2s against them and they were 276th in eFG% defense.

So, this is a step up defensively for the Cocks, who are missing Meechie Johnson (Ohio State), Ta’Lon Cooper, and BJ Mack (graduation). Collin Murray-Boyles is a really good interior scorer and  Nick Pringle was a great transfer addition from Alabama, but the guards for SC have been inefficient shooters throughout their college careers.

Towson was 296th in eFG% offense last season, shooting just 46.4% on 2s and 32.8% on 3s. Most of the roster is intact from last year.

With the expectation of a slow-paced game, I don’t think we’ll see either team make it rain from 3 and I think South Carolina’s offense takes a step back.

Pick: Under 134

UIC Flames at Northwestern Wildcats (-15, 142)

7 p.m. ET

Bragging rights in Illinois are on the line here, as UIC heads to the suburbs to battle Northwestern out in Evanston. Illinois Chicago shot 36% on 3s last season to rank 59th in the nation and they’ve got a bevy of good shooters again, as Rob Ehsan has taken over for Luke Yaklich. Ehsan was an assistant at Stanford under Jerod Haase and actually spent eight seasons at UAB, including four as the head coach.

Ehsan is a quant guy, holding a degree in economics and a MBA, so I’m not surprised to see the Flames with the shot selection that they have. They took 36 2s and 32 3s in their one D-I game, a 12-point win over Yale. Given the likelihood that we have a limited number of possessions in this game with Northwestern’s slow tempo, I really like where UIC is from a shot selection standpoint.

Northwestern thumped Lehigh, but then lost by five to Dayton on the road on Saturday. Without Boo Buie, it is tough to see how this offense can be anywhere near as efficient as last season. The Purple Cats were 75th in eFG% offense, but 240th in eFG% defense. They were a top 10 team in TO% on offense last year and actually helped the defensive numbers by being 64th in TO% per Torvik. They were in the 220s in 2P% and 3P% defense.

Buie, the lead facilitator of the offense, is gone. Sharpshooter Ryan Langborg is gone. NW still has the chance to force some turnovers with Ty Berry and Brooks Barnhizer back, but Buie’s high Usage Rate and efficiency at both ends of the floor is a lot to replace.

Pick: UIC +15

Fairfield Stags (-1, 152.5) at New Hampshire Wildcats

7 p.m. ET

Fairfield is off to an 0-2 start on the season, as the Stags have played much stronger competition in Rhode Island and Georgetown. They’ve only had .767 and .829 points per possession in their two games. Chris Casey’s team struggled at the outset last season, losing six of their first seven games, including one against New Hampshire.

But, I think this is a pretty good team going forward. In that game against UNH, Fairfield was 4-of-20 from 3, while New Hampshire was 13-of-29 from 3. That was obviously the difference in the 83-80 final.

Fairfield is missing all of their key players from last season, with Caleb Fields, Jalen Leach, and Brycen Goodine all gone. And it has shown in the first couple of games, but they are really stepping down in class here. Fairfield won’t keep shooting 23.5% from 3 and won’t keep shooting under 40% on Close Twos, as defined by Torvik.

The Wildcats were a bad offensive team last year. They were in the 300s in adjusted offensive efficiency and played at a very fast tempo, so this was an extremely inefficient offense. Ironically, they had that 83-point showing against Fairfield, but that was very much the exception. The 13 3-pointers tied for the second-most that they had all season.

I think it’s a get-right spot for Fairfield, especially with revenge from last season and the chance for Casey’s team to step down in class.

Pick: Fairfield -1

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