College Basketball Best Bets Today:

We’ve got nearly double the games on Tuesday that we had on Monday, as we go from 23 to 45 here on November 19. Big games are in very short supply, as Purdue vs. Marquette takes the top billing, but we’ll need some underdog drama in the other games with top-tier teams to make them a little more interesting for TV.

I began the research process a little bit frustrated today, as I felt like one play wasn’t enough to give out on Colgate/NC State and added a loser in North Texas/McNeese. Be selective early in the season, as we’re still finding out about these teams with a high variance level across the college hoops landscape.

 

***Top College Basketball Betting Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Longwood Lancers (-7, 142.5) at Binghamton Bearcats

6:07 p.m. ET

Big South vs. America East here, as Longwood makes the trek to upstate New York to battle Binghamton. The Bearcats have two wins over lower-division foes to go with three losses against Penn State, Miami, and Fordham. Longwood is off to a 4-0 start.

What has been impressive about Longwood’s start to the season isn’t the teams that they’ve beaten. It’s how they’ve won. This is a team shooting just 28.6% from 3 in three games against Division I opponents, but they’ve won by 18, 14, and 2, with the most recent win against a UT Martin team that plays a very unique defense under new head coach Jeremy Shulman. I’d expect positive regression in the 3P% department.

Longwood shouldn’t get any big surprises from Binghamton, a team that has not performed well offensively at any point under head coach Levell Sanders. In Longwood’s three D-I games this season, they’ve allowed .909, .768, and .911 PPP. UT Martin was just 9-of-25 on 2s in the last game.

In Binghamton’s four seasons under Sanders, they’ve been 235th, 228th, 244th, and 218th in eFG% offense and that’s in a conference with a lot of poor defensive teams.

This is a Lancers team replacing a lot from last year’s tournament team, but Griff Aldrich is an excellent head coach and I think each data point is a chance to improve with a roster full of transfers and some bench holdovers.

Pick: Longwood -7

Cincinnati Bearcats (-12.5, 137.5) at Northern Kentucky Norse

7 p.m. ET

The Bearcats take a short trip across the Ohio River to take on Northern Kentucky. Cincinnati won 90-66 last season in a game played to 67 possessions, as they blew out the Norse without 7-footer Aziz Bandaogo, who had not yet been cleared to play. It was a revenge spot for the Bearcats, who suffered a 64-51 defeat the year prior. That team was not nearly as good as last season’s, which isn’t nearly as good as this season’s.

Bradley transfer Connor Hickman and Texas transfer Dillon Mitchell are two extremely efficient scorers. Cincinnati has played absolutely nobody to this point, winning by 55, 27, and 37, so this is a bit of a step up, especially against Horn’s pressure defense, but Cincinnati has too much length and too much athleticism in this game in my opinion.

Also, NKU isn’t scoring. In games against Florida State, Purdue, and Nicholls, the Norse have .808, .805, and .871 points per possession. If we extrapolate that average out over 67 possessions like last season’s game, that puts the Norse at 55.5 points. They haven’t shot well from 3, haven’t really taken great care of the ball, and have struggled badly on 2s, shooting just 44%. 

Nicholls had 35 shot attempts at the rim in the upset win over Northern Kentucky last time out and only made 13 of those shots. They were 14-of-45 on 2s and still won because NKU was so poor offensively. I think this line has moved down because of the big spread relative to the below average tempo, but I think Cincinnati’s efficiency on both ends of the floor will be enough.

Pick: Cincinnati -12.5

Cleveland State Vikings at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-14.5, 133)

7 p.m. ET

It is amazing the coaches that Cleveland State has been able to have over their history. Gary Waters actually put together a top-100 team in his time with the Vikings and Dennis Gates took the team to the NCAA Tournament in 2021 before springboarding to Missouri. Now Daniyal Robinson looks like a guy that could use this gig to level up as well.

The Vikings are a work in progress after losing Tristan Enaruna, Drew Lowder, and Tae Williams from last season’s team, but they are regularly among the nation’s best in offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers. Even though the level of competition steps up here against Minnesota, the Golden Gophers have allowed an opposing ORB% over 30% in each of their games and have periodically struggled to take care of the ball.

Minnesota’s games have been played to 65, 66, 57, and 54 possessions so far this season, as Ben Johnson is really looking to slow the game to a crawl. Minnesota has the 16th-best assist rate vs. D-I opponents per Torvik, so they’re taking their time to move the ball around and look for shots. And yet, they’re shooting just 49.6% on 2s and 30.7% on 3s.

Cleveland State’s effort level is a big deal in a game like this, where they’ll be tasked with defending the majority of the shot clock. But, I think their prowess on the offensive glass and the pressure they play with on defense could steal a few possessions in a game where those will be at a premium. Even in losses to Michigan and Kansas State, Cleveland State had 38 combined offensive rebounds.

Pick: Cleveland State +14.5

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR