College Basketball Best Bets Today:

A larger board to pick from comes our way on Wednesday with 56 games on the docket. We’ve got a few really compelling games tonight that will provide interesting data points to discuss later in the season in terms of seeding and at-large resume comparisons. We’ve also got some conference clashes spread throughout the day as well.

Yesterday was a continuation of an ice-cold run on the wrong side of variance, as Duke did George Mason (+19.5) dirty in a 21-point win, using the starters to run a play on the final possession before the Patriots missed a layup and a 3-pointer on their last possession. Marist (-2.5) missed a free throw with no time left on the clock to win by 2. Clemson (-2) banked in a 3 to force OT, but lost by 3 in the extra period. College basketball is notorious for the bad beats and the violent swings in a high-variance sport. It’s been a rough go lately, but hopefully more games yields more opportunities.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Richmond Spiders at William & Mary Tribe (-3, 155.5)

7 p.m. ET

We’ll have a 3-point shooting contest in Williamsburg tonight, as Richmond and William & Mary go head-to-head. The Tribe have not played in 14 days, as their last game was a 109-55 win over lower-division Lynchburg. But, I don’t think that’s a bad thing with a first-year head coach in Brian Earl, who did some great things offensively over seven seasons with Cornell.

He’s done some good things offensively here, as the Tribe comes in 22nd in 2P% offense and 208th in 3P%, leading to an 88th-place ranking in eFG%. W&M has had a lot of problems on the defensive end of the floor, a byproduct of their tempo and the fact that there can be some run-outs against their defense because of the high rate of 3-pointers. The Tribe have taken a 3 on 53.6% of their shot attempts against Division I opponents. They’ve also had a lot of time to practice in their gym leading into this one.

Richmond has struggled to score this season. Without Neal Quinn, Jordan King, and Dji Bailey, head coach Chris Mooney has had a tough time finding offensive upside. King was a 41.4% 3-point shooter last season, while the 7-foot Quinn was a huge presence on the inside. The offense ran through him with a 26.5% Usage Rate and he was far and away the team’s leading assist man.

This season, Mooney doesn’t have that player, as Delonnie Hunt, Dusan Neskovic, and Jonathan Beagle have run the offense. Beagle has assumed the Quinn role and has played well, but the Spiders don’t have a lot of shot-makers. They are shooting 27.6% on 203 3-point attempts and 50% on 238 2-point attempts.

In a game that will be played with tempo and one where Richmond will likely be forced to score to keep up, I don’t think it will happen. They’re not adept at forcing turnovers, which has been a problem with the ball for W&M, and Richmond is a terrible offensive rebounding team in Quinn’s absence.

Pick: William & Mary -3

Wofford Terriers at Saint Louis Billikens (-7.5, 150)

8 p.m. ET

Wofford and Saint Louis come together on Wednesday night and the Billikens have a lot of advantages on paper. Both teams have taken a 3 on 47.8% of their shot attempts in Division I games, but Saint Louis is 102nd in the nation at 35.3% and Wofford is 232nd in the nation at 31.7%. So, that’s one thing that I like.

Another thing that I like is that Saint Louis has a 41.8% shot share on Close Twos and has allowed just a 32.5% shot share, while Wofford has a 35.1% shot share and has allowed a 39.1% shot share. So, Saint Louis gets to the rim more and is also better at preventing teams from getting to the rim.

From an interior defense standpoint, Saint Louis has allowed a 54.1% FG% on Close Twos, while Wofford has allowed a 63% FG%. Robbie Avila should eat in this game and I would expect the Billikens to take the better shots and have the better efficiency metrics across the board.

Wofford is 291st in eFG% defense and Saint Louis ranks 44th in eFG% offense. I also think Saint Louis can push the pace a little bit on Wofford and make them uncomfortable.

Pick: Saint Louis -7.5

Utah Valley Wolverines at Idaho State Bengals (-1.5, 136)

9 p.m. ET

WAC vs. Big Sky in this one as Utah Valley heads up to Pocatello to take on Idaho State. The Wolverines are off to a bit of a slow start, as head coach Todd Phillips has had some roster turnover in his two seasons with the program, but I think this is still a quality team and he is a good head coach.

I’m a little bit perplexed by Idaho State. They are second in the nation in ORB%, but only have a 31.6% shot share on Close Twos. So, they’re either not putting shots back up right away or are getting a lot of long rebounds as a result of their shot selection. They have taken a 3 on 41.5% of their shot attempts and have only cashed in at a 27.3% clip. They also take a long 2-pointer on nearly 27% of their shot attempts.

For cleaning the glass as well as they do, they are 344th in eFG% offense. I wouldn’t expect the high ORB% to continue, as this isn’t a terribly tall team. I think it’s definitely going to regress in a negative manner for them there. As I mentioned, they’re already not making shots and they’ve actually turned things around defensively compared to what Ryan Looney’s teams usually do. This group was 346th in eFG% defense last season and ranks 157th going into today.

Utah Valley has a much higher shot share on Close Twos and should be able to maximize those opportunities with a big step down in class here. The Wolverines have played the 114th-ranked schedule per Torvik and 135th based on Net Rating per KenPom. Idaho State has played the 263rd-ranked schedule per Torvik. They’ve played the 64th per KenPom, but he doesn’t factor in games against lower-division opponents, of which Idaho State has played three already, accounting for 60% of their wins.

I think the wrong team is favored in this one.

Pick: Utah Valley +1.5

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