College basketball schedule today has 31 games
We’ve got much more to pick from today, as we’ll see some major conference teams in action for the first time since the holiday break and even get conference games in the SEC, A-10, Big East, Mountain West and AAC. There are 83 games tomorrow, so the schedule is ramping back up. It means we have more choices and the chance to find more edges.
As conference play begins for most teams or becomes the norm, look for those strength of schedule discrepancies. Look at trend lines for teams when they’ve played better or comparable competition. Think about how the importance of these games increases some of the late-game fouling situations. Conference play is different from nonconference play and you have to handicap it with a different mindset.
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Here are some thoughts on the December 28 card (odds from DraftKings):
Xavier Musketeers (-1.5, 163.5) at St. John’s Red Storm
St. John’s might end up being a really good team, but I’m going to need them to prove it to me tonight against Xavier. All of Xavier’s losses have come against top-30 opponents, of which St. John’s is not. This will also be the Red Storm’s first game against a top-30 opponent. Ken Pomeroy has the Red Storm 302nd in strength of schedule, having faced the 330th-ranked slate of opposing offenses. That seems like a major concern going up against a Xavier team that ranks ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom and seventh per Bart Torvik.
Xavier has played the 50th-ranked schedule per KenPom and 16th per Torvik, including four Quadrant I games. St. John’s has played one Quadrant I game and lost by 11 at Iowa State. Both teams should be able to score here, as evidenced by the total, but Xavier is shooting almost 10% better on 3s. Neither team takes many 3s, but if the Musketeers fire away from deep, they have a better chance at making them.
Xavier is second in the nation in Assist Rate, so the Musketeers share the ball really effectively, which should lead to a lot of offensive efficiency in a fast-paced game. St. John’s is 118th in Assist Rate having played a much weaker schedule.
I’ll take the better team with the much higher strength of schedule in a short road favorite role here.
Pick: Xavier -1.5
Mercer Bears at Samford Bulldogs (-1.5, 139.5)
Samford has a really big injury that will likely impact this game, much like it has the last four games for the Bulldogs. According to the SamfordScoop Twitter account, guard Ques Glover won’t be back until sometime in mid-January. The former Florida recruit had 15.6 points per game over the team’s first five games, including just six points in the 103-98 loss to DePaul when he played just 17 minutes. In the four games without him, Samford is 0-4 and has scored 1.02, .896, .950 and .901 points per possession. They are clearly trying to figure out life without the player that stirs the drink.
Samford does a good job of forcing turnovers, but also carries a high TO% on offense. The Bulldogs are awful at defending the 3, as opponents are shooting 40.3%, which is 357th in the country in games against Division I opponents. Mercer is firing away at 38.4% from 3 and is a decent offensive squad.
Samford plays a high-pressure defense and takes a lot of fouls. With Glover out, the team’s depth has taken on a much bigger role and there aren’t many reliable scorers. Perhaps this is the game where they rally, but Samford has dropped seven in a row and has looked lost without Glover.
Pick: Mercer +1.5
Rider Broncos at Georgia Bulldogs (-9.5, 136)
Rider and Georgia have both played awful schedules to this point, but Georgia is 9-3 and Rider is 5-5. The Broncs have played the 322nd-ranked slate of opposing offenses and still rank 264th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Georgia has played the 358th-ranked slate of opposing defenses and ranks 153rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, but has played solid defense this season and I think that is the difference in this game.
Georgia also seems to be trending up. This is the first season under former Florida head coach Mike White and it has taken a little bit of time to get into rhythm offensively. Against solid opponents in Georgia Tech, Notre Dame and Chattanooga, the Bulldogs have managed 1.135, 1.122 and 1.083 points per possession. They should continue to have that level of success or more against a really bad Rider defense.
Rider’s offense has been saved by being in the top 40 in offensive rebounding percentage and top 30 in free throw percentage per Torvik against D-I opponents. Georgia, though, is a solid defensive rebounding team and is definitely more athletic. Furthermore, the Bulldogs are a top-20 team on the offensive glass. Rider is outside the top 300 in 2P% against D-I opponents and takes a lot of mid-range jumpers. I don’t like that strategy against a SEC opponent and I feel like this is a game where we really see Georgia win big.
Pick: Georgia -9.5
