College Basketball Best Bets Today:

A 56-game slate in college basketball is headlined by a couple of Final Four-caliber games, with Auburn at Duke and Alabama at North Carolina. We’ve also got some Sweet 16/Elite Eight-caliber games like Pitt vs. Mississippi State, Kansas vs. Creighton, and Baylor vs. UConn among tonight’s matchups.

It should be a fun night on the college basketball hardwood and some of the exceptional games we’ve already gotten have created a buzz about the season much earlier than usual. That is great for the game and maybe great for this article, as I like to look way under-the-radar for picks and the more exciting season is thanks to the good teams, the more attention the oddsmakers need to pay to them. Maybe that will give us some more mispriced lines down the board.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

George Washington Revolutionaries (-4, 142.5) at American University Eagles

7 p.m. ET

There is nothing more patriotic in college basketball than a game between George Washington and American. The Revolutionaries head to Bender Arena in D.C. for this one and this is one of those classic handicaps for me.

George Washington has a 43.3% shot share on Close Twos that ranks 61st per Torvik and American has allowed a 43.7% shot share that ranks 306th. On those shots, the Eagles have allowed opponents to shoot 62.8%. Meanwhile, their offensive shot share on Close Twos is 283rd in the nation at 34.9%.

American takes a lot of 3s, turns the ball over a lot, and plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation. George Washington has played a bad schedule, but third-year head coach Chris Caputo has had a solid offensive team in each of his two seasons. He picked up some nice portal prizes in the offseason with 6-foot-11 Rafael Castro from Providence, who is shooting 72% on 2s, and Delaware guard Gerald Drumgoole Jr., who was originally recruited to Pitt six years ago. He’s an experienced player who takes good care of the basketball.

George Washington was 86th in shot share on Close Twos last season and also had a 41.6% 3P Rate with a 35.8% 3P%. So, this is an efficient offense from a shot-making and shot selection standpoint. Against an American team that struggles to defend and struggles to protect possessions, that is a deadly combo.

Pick: George Washington -4

Central Connecticut State Blue Devils at UMass Minutemen (-9, 138.5)

7 p.m. ET

UMass steps down in class tonight with a matchup against Central Connecticut. It has not been a great start to the season for Frank Martin’s club, as they’ve gone three up and five down to this point, but none of the five losses have been “bad” in my opinion. They’ve won a couple in a row over Harvard and NJIT as the schedule has eased up and I think they’re in position for a solid win tonight.

UMass is riding the struggle bus hard from downtown this season. As a team, they are shooting 24.7% from 3 and have gone 12-for-80 over the last four games. Despite a combined 4-for-33 effort against Harvard and NJIT, they still won those games by 8 and 12 points.

Why? Because UMass is terrific about getting to the rim. This was a thing for them last season as well, as the Minutemen had a 39.4% shot share that ranked 98th in the nation. This season, they’re 23rd at 46.7%. Abdul Momoh has been a strong rim protector for CCSU thus far, but he doesn’t get a lot of help on the interior. Given that UMass excels on the offensive glass, Momoh getting into foul trouble is a real concern here for fourth-year head coach Patrick Sellers.

Sellers has done a great job with the Blue Devils, as they’ve gone from 8 to 10 to 20 wins on his watch, but most of last season’s offensive production is gone. Leaders Kellen Amos, Allan Jeanne-Rose, and Tre Breland are all gone and Jordan Jones is off to a very slow start with all the extra attention.

CCSU is shooting just 26.4% from 3 themselves. They should also get more defensive resistance from a Martin-coached team than what they’ve gotten in other games.

This reminds me of the Northeastern/CCSU game on November 16 in a neutral setting when we had the Huskies -3 and they won by 18, going 21-of-30 on shots at the rim.

Pick: UMass -9

Loyola Marymount Lions at Colorado State Rams (-9.5, 139.5)

9 p.m. ET

Loyola Marymount heads to Fort Collins to play at elevation against Colorado State. We’ve seen a pretty sharp move towards the Rams in this one from a spread standpoint and a little bit of Under money trickle in on the total.

I agree with the Under money and there are quite a few reasons why. Let’s start with the shot selection for each team. Colorado State has a 31.4% shot share on Close Twos, which ranks 331st in the nation. Loyola Marymount isn’t much better at 31.6% and 328th.

A big reason why these teams don’t take a lot of shots at the rim is because they are both among the worst offensive rebounding teams in the nation. Per Torvik, Colorado State comes in 324th in ORB% and Loyola Marymount is 315th.

Both teams are taking a lot of 3s, but not making them. LMU is at 30.9% with a 3P Rate of 43.4%. CSU is at 29.8% with a 3P Rate of 42.1%. 

One of Colorado State’s defensive strengths is forcing takeaways with a 20.2% TO%, but Loyola Marymount has the eighth-lowest TO% at 13.1%. The Lions’ defensive strength is not fouling, as they rank 33rd in FT Rate defense, but they are also 350th in FT Rate offense because of their inability to get to the paint and draw them.

The other element here is that Colorado State has already played three overtime games that have inflated some of their final scores. They’ve also failed to score at least 1.000 points per possession in three straight games.

This is an Under handicap for me.

Pick: Under 139.5

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