College Basketball Best Bets Today:

Hump Day is a busy day on the college basketball card with 51 games for your viewing and betting pleasure. We’ve got a very wide spread of conferences in play, so it’s one of those “something for everyone” nights. We’ve got major-conference games, including the Alabama vs. Missouri headliner, and some games from the Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC, as well as a pretty interesting West Coast Conference clash with Gonzaga against Washington State.

Like I said yesterday, we’re getting close to conference tournaments and the fight for seeding and the quest for improving the at-large resume are going to keep a lot of teams very much engaged the rest of the way. Keep an eye out for rematches as well! Check into that first game to see what light it could shed on the next one.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

SMU Mustangs (-1.5, 144.5) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

7 p.m. ET

SMU and Notre Dame square off in one of tonight’s three ACC matchups. The Mustangs make the trek to South Bend off of a rare loss, as they dropped Saturday’s game at home to Wake Forest to snap a five-game winning streak. Prior to that, their losses on the season had been Butler, Mississippi State, Duke, North Carolina, and Louisville, so four Quadrant 1 games and then Butler on the road.

They’ll look to avenge that loss in Indiana with a win here and I think they’ll get it. Notre Dame is stepping up in class here compared to their recent schedule. They did lose to a top-20 Torvik team in Louisville over the weekend, but had played teams ranked 92nd or higher by Torvik in eight games prior to that and only went 4-4 in that span.

SMU is fourth in conference in adjusted offensive efficiency and sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Notre Dame is seventh and 11th, respectively. SMU is the top offensive rebounding team in conference play and should win the battle on the glass and in the turnover department. SMU is second in league action in eFG% defense and that should come into play here.

In 12 games against Top 100 teams as defined by Torvik, the Fighting Irish are 2-10 and have allowed over a point per possession in 10 of those games, while only beating Georgetown and Virginia, who ranked 97th and 100th at the time the game was played. SMU ranks 43rd going into tonight.

Pick: SMU -1.5

North Dakota State Bison at South Dakota State Jackrabbits (-6.5, 157.5)

8 p.m. ET

South Dakota State is looking for the regular season sweep here against North Dakota State in a battle between Summit League rivals. SDSU won the first game 72-62 on the road back on Jan. 30. What stands out about that game is that NDSU won the rebounding battle, had more points at the free throw line, and more shot attempts at the rim…and still lost by 10.

North Dakota State leads the nation in eFG%, but they are 8-5 in Summit League play, with their five losses against the top teams in the conference. They’ve lost to Omaha twice and St. Thomas twice. I’m expecting them to lose to South Dakota State twice as well.

Even though SDSU’s shot share on Close Twos is nearly 10% higher than NDSU’s, the Jackrabbits didn’t get to the rim much in the first game. I’d expect that to change. I’d also expect the Jackrabbits to defend the 3-point line well, as the Bison take over 55% of their shots from beyond the arc. This is also a rare case where I don’t mind that SDSU takes some mid-range jumpers because NDSU doesn’t defend them well.

In Haslametrics’ Momentum metric, North Dakota State has the third-worst mark in the nation, so they have not been playing to or exceeding expectations over their last 4-8 games. A lot of it has to do with their performances against better teams and also some really poor defense against inferior teams.

South Dakota State is definitely superior and I think they show it tonight, as NDSU also comes in off of back-to-back overtime games against lesser foes.

Pick: South Dakota State -6.5

Portland Pilots at Saint Mary’s Gaels (-24.5, 140.5)

10 p.m. ET

This may not be a very fun sweat, as Portland is likely to be holding on for dear life to keep this game respectable, but this is a really big number in the game between the Pilots and Gaels. Portland has won three of the last four, including two really nice wins over Oregon State and Loyola Marymount in their last two games. 

Obviously Saint Mary’s is a huge step up and a consensus top-20 team, but the Gaels haven’t played a game over 65 possessions since beating Portland by 23 back on Jan. 4. I would expect this game to be played to a slower pace and Portland’s offense has really improved since that game, especially with their 3-point shooting.

Saint Mary’s is absolutely capable of the efficiency that it takes to get this cover, as they’re magnificent on defense and have been very strong on offense as well, but the Pilots are up more than 30 spots in Haslametrics’ rankings over the last week and Saint Mary’s has Gonzaga on deck this weekend at The Kennel.

I’ll take a 24.5-point head start with Saint Mary’s not necessarily interested in a blowout win.

Pick: Portland +24.5

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