College Basketball Best Bets Today:

We’ve got a big college basketball schedule for Wednesday with 54 games on the docket. A lot of teams are coming down the finishing stretch of the regular season and one, the Atlantic Sun, will finish up tonight. That means you’ll see our Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament preview posted to the website shortly, as the first of 31 that will be going up over the next few weeks.

As far as the rest of the slate, it is a busy one with the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, Mountain West, Big East, A-10, ACC, Missouri Valley, Big South, AAC, Sun Belt, Patriot, Atlantic Sun, Summit, SoCon, and MEAC all in action. Something for everyone, as I like to say.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Bucknell Bison (-2.5, 140.5) at Loyola (MD) Greyhounds

7 p.m. ET

To the Patriot League we go with a look at Bucknell vs. Loyola. These two teams played back on Jan. 29 and the Bison won by 12 in a game that they led wire-to-wire. A couple of the same things I expect to happen tonight were on display in the first meeting.

Bucknell did not finish well at the rim at all, but they had 29 shot attempts at the rim compared to 17 for the Greyhounds. For the season, Bucknell ranks 19th in shot share against on Close Twos, so John Griffin’s team is very good at forcing the opposition into jump shots. It is a big reason why the Bison are tops in adjusted defensive efficiency in conference play and rank second in 2P% defense.

The second is that Bucknell had a free throw advantage, as they were +5 in makes and +6 in attempts. The score helped, as the Greyhounds fouled a little bit to extend the game, but the Bison are No. 1 in the Patriot in FT Rate, a byproduct of being ahead in a lot of late-game situations. 

Loyola is shooting 33.7% from 3, which ranks eighth in conference play. Given how Bucknell is more likely to get to the rim and, and also leads the conference in 3P% at 39.4%, I don’t see how Loyola can score enough here to keep pace. Bucknell also ranks second in Haslametrics’ Momentum Rating, so they’re playing some excellent ball right now.

Pick: Bucknell -2.5

Stetson Hatters at Jacksonville Dolphins (-13.5, 143.5)

7 p.m. ET

Bear with me on this handicap because this is a pretty big number on a team that has struggled a bit of late, but there is a method to the madness. Jacksonville hosts Stetson in the A-Sun regular season finale. Stetson is locked into the No. 9 seed. They can’t move with a win or a loss. Jacksonville needs a win to hold on to the No. 4 seed, which is important because they’d be at home in the quarterfinals on Monday.

The Dolphins own the head-to-head tiebreakers over both Queens and Eastern Kentucky. With two losses to Florida Gulf Coast, they cannot move up to No. 3, but staying on that No. 4 line gives them a much better chance in the quarters.

Now, for the handicap of the matchup itself, Jacksonville beat Stetson 74-65 back on Feb. 6 on the road. The Dolphins had 34 shot attempts at the rim in that game, even though leading scorer Robert McCray missed that one. They also had 16 offensive rebounds. McCray is the leading assist man for the Dolphins as well, so he is what stirs the drink on offense. He’s not the most efficient shooter, but the team had 1.059 PPP without him, which was one of their lower performances in that stretch of games.

The Dolphins are No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency in conference play and have held opponents to just 47.1% on 2s and 33.7% on 3s, while also leading the conference in 3P% offense at 39.8%. They’re also tops in TO% on defense. I think they’re going to have the chance at a blowout.

Lastly, with Stetson unable to move up or down, and an extra game to play at home on Sunday before potentially playing a back-to-back if they beat Central Arkansas, I think Donnie Jones will be very careful about watching his players’ minutes. To get the conference tourney started when they do, the schedule has been condensed. This is the fourth game in eight days for Stetson and a two-hour drive to Jacksonville for a game that means nothing.

Pick: Jacksonville -13.5

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