College basketball best bets today

The college basketball season keeps chugging right along with 58 games on a very busy Wednesday. With conference tournaments on the horizon, there may be some schedule alterations here and there to give teams a little bit more rest going into that high-stakes environment. This is about the most games I can remember having on a Wednesday in quite some time.

More games mean more opportunities to find value, so hopefully things turn around a little bit with the college basketball best bets today. Before I get into that, I just want to remind everybody that not every team qualifies for the conference tournament in every conference, so these games mean more to some and less to others, so you’ll want to add that to your research.

 

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Before getting into the college basketball best bets for today, a quick note on upcoming VSiN content. We will be previewing all 32 conference tournaments this season, as myself, Zachary Cohen, Jonathan Von Tobel, Matt Youmans, Wes Reynolds, Mike Somich, Tyler Shoemaker, and Aaron Moore will all be involved in that process. The first conference tournament starts March 4 (Atlantic Sun) and we’ll get those out as quickly as possible.

We’ll also have a March Madness Primer with some general NCAA Tournament betting tips on either March 10 or 11 and then our March Madness Betting Guide on March 19. Lots of college hoops coming your way!

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.

Here are three college basketball best bets for today.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Samford Bulldogs (-6, 155.5) at Wofford Terriers

7 p.m. ET

The story of the 2024 season for Wofford has been very, very clear. They are 7-1 against Quadrant 4 opponents, 5-6 against Quadrant 3, and 0-7 against Quadrant 1 or 2. They draw a Q2 opponent tonight in Samford, who they only lost to by a deuce earlier this season, but it took some pretty extreme circumstances for that to happen.

Wofford was 17-of-33 from 3 in that game and scored 1.201 points per possession, but still lost. Wofford has a win over Western Carolina and one over Furman, but in their other games against the top teams in this conference, they’ve lost by 4, 23, 14, 2, 11, 16, and 15, with Furman exacting revenge last time out.

In the last two games, Wofford is 25-of-64 (39.1%) from 3 (13/36, 12/28) and yet they’ve only scored 132 total points and allowed 163. They gave up 1.238 PPP to Chattanooga and 1.320 PPP to Furman.

Samford is one of the best offensive teams in the country, ranking third in eFG%, 23rd in 2P%, and third in 3P% (40.2%). They are also 12th in the country in TO% on defense. The SoCon Tournament will be tough, but Samford is not a team anybody wants to see in the NCAA Tournament with their efficiency numbers on offense and some above average defensive numbers.

To me, that’s not a team that Wofford wants to see either, as teams like UNC Greensboro and Chattanooga have played really well against them. To me, that’s the second tier behind Samford. The Bulldogs have scored at least 1.061 PPP in every game since their loss to Furman on Jan. 24 and I think they use this game as a tune-up for the SoCon Tourney with The Citadel at home on Saturday in a massive favorite role.

Pick: Samford -6

Winthrop Eagles at High Point Panthers (-8.5, 155)

7 p.m. ET

If you like offense, this could be the game for you tonight. We’ve got a total of 155 between two teams that played an 83-81 game the first time around back on Jan. 27. That was a really interesting game, as Winthrop led by as many as 17 early in the second half, but blew the lead and lost the game outright on a Kezza Giffa layup with one second left.

I would assume that Mark Prosser’s team has been thinking about that game ever since it happened and they’ll get a crack at revenge tonight. I’m not sure if Winthrop gets that revenge by getting in the win column, but I do like them to cover the spread tonight.

A lot of things happened in that first game. Winthrop had 42 shot attempts at the rim in a game played to 68 possessions, so clearly they found a way to get inside and they are very adept at doing that with a 44.1% shot share on Close Twos that ranks 27th nationally per Bart Torvik. It is also a big reason why Winthrop has the highest FT Rate in the nation.

But, in that game, High Point had 35 free throw attempts to 24 for the Eagles, which was one key difference in the game. The other was that High Point hit eight 3s and Winthrop only made three. Winthrop actually has a higher 3P Rate, though they also have a much higher 3P Rate against.

What I like here is that Winthrop has a turnover problem, but High Point is 344th in the nation in forcing TOs. That should also Winthrop to score and more than hang around in this one.

Pick: Winthrop +8.5

Troy Trojans at Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (-2.5, 149.5)

8 p.m. ET

I’ll be writing up the Fun Belt Conference Tournament for y’all next week, but I’ve got a Fun Belt play tonight, as Troy visits Louisiana. Troy drew first blood in the series with a six-point win back on Jan. 10 and I like the Trojans in this evening’s affair as a short pup at the Cajundome.

These two teams are going in different directions. I think Louisiana’s lack of depth has caught up with them. Five players have played at least 66.7% of the available minutes and four of them have played at least 71.8%. They’ve dropped four of their last five and their losses on the road last week to rival UL Monroe and Southern Miss were really ugly against inferior competition.

Troy is up to sixth in eFG% offense and fourth in eFG% defense in league play. The Trojans are second in 2P% defense and first in TO%. I’m also not surprised to see Troy as a positive regression candidate throughout conference play. They’re one of those teams I like with a 47.4% shot share on Close Twos per Torvik and a 40.1% 3P Rate, so they don’t bother with mid-range jumpers.

What is a bummer is that they’re only shooting 52.6% on Close Twos, but Louisiana has allowed a 61.4% FG% that ranks in the bottom 60 nationally. Troy was 22-of-33 on shot attempts at the rim in the first game. They won by six in that game, despite their fewest 3-point makes in any conference game.

Louisiana’s 3-point defense may be regressing as well. Opponents are 19-of-45 (42.2%) during this current three-game losing streak, as the Ragin’ Cajuns have held teams to 25.8% in Sun Belt play and lead the nation overall at 27.4%.

Troy has the better stats and the deeper roster as we’re late into February and I like those two things for tonight.

Pick: Troy +2.5

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