College Basketball Best Bets Today:
Day 2 of March Madness and Day 2 of the NIT bring us 11 games on Wednesday evening. Action begins in Dayton at 6:40 p.m. ET with American vs. Mount St. Mary’s and the California-heavy NIT closes the night with Loyola Chicago vs. San Jose State and Utah Valley vs. San Francisco at 11 p.m. ET.
Much like yesterday, we’ve seen significant money on the Over in every NIT game. The Over was 5-2 against the closing number and 6-1 against the opening number. Most people who bet Cal State Northridge/Stanford Over cashed, as it closed 158 and landed 157. We’ll see if that’s the case again today.
I’ve previewed the NIT, including a couple of futures I like. I’ll preview the CBI this weekend and the CBC when it gets closer. Our March Mania Betting Guide is now available to VSiN Pro subscribers, which you can become for the low cost of $9.99 for the first month. We also have previews of every NCAA Tournament game coming your way as things progress.
Now, let’s get to today’s action and my favorite play of the day with 11 games on the slate.
Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.
This article will run every day with CBB games through the end of the season. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers vs. American Eagles (-2.5, 129.5)
6:40 p.m ET
We had a thriller in the 16 vs. 16 game on Tuesday night. We may have some drama in this one, but “thriller” isn’t the way that I’d describe this game. American ranks 349th in the nation in adjusted tempo per Torvik and Mount St. Mary’s is 174th, however, their three games in the MAAC Tournament were played to 65, 59, and 64 possessions, so below their league average.
The Mountaineers are a team that mostly doesn’t have a tempo or identity, as they just play to the other team’s. However, with Carmelo Pacheco and Terrell Ard. Jr. out during the conference tourney, they really slowed down. Ard is out for the season and Pacheco has a broken finger, so he won’t play tonight either. He’s shot 46.6% from 3 on a team-high 163 attempts, so he’s a big loss.
These are two teams that don’t get to the rim a lot, with America boasting a shot share of 33.8% on Close Twos and Mount St. Mary’s at 35.3%. The Mountaineers also have a very low shot share against on Close Twos of 32.6%. In other words, we’re going to see a lot of long jump shots here from teams that play in much smaller venues than UD Arena. UD Arena holds over 13,000. Bender Arena in D.C. holds a little over 3,000 and Knott Arena in Emmitsburg, MD holds 3,200 for hoops.
Speaking of the tempo of this game, Mount St. Mary’s turns the ball over a ton. They are 358th in TO% in games against Division I opponents per Torvik at 21.7%. They had 45 turnovers in their three MAAC Tournament wins. That’s another way that American can control the tempo of this game and keep it slow.
I have to look Under the total in this one.
Pick: Under 129.5
North Alabama Lions at Bradley Braves (-4.5, 145.5)
8 p.m. ET
I had a mild moment of panic a couple days ago when VSiN reader Clark sent me a message about Bradley having two key players opt out of the NIT. I think the Braves are decent value to pick to win the tournament thanks to their offensive prowess and good set of statistics. But, then it was announced that Darius Hannah and Zek Montgomery had opted out to focus on a pro career.
Well, Hannah had a change of heart and will play now, which is a huge deal in this matchup in particular. North Alabama is really aggressive about trying to get to the rim and Hannah is an important piece in terms of the interior defense. Freshman Jaquan Johnson was one of the most valuable defenders at the guard position as well, so now I like Bradley’s defensive setup a bit more. I hope Montgomery decides to play today since he’s a 39% 3P% guy, but there are others that can step in and shoot the ball well. A lot of them, actually.
North Alabama was 20-0 in Quadrant 4 games and 2-10 in anything higher than that. This visit to Bradley is a Q2 game, where they went 0-3, including the A-Sun title game loss to Lipscomb. I think UNA is going to have a ton of issues defending here. Bradley leads the nation in 3P% at 40% and is a top-10 offense in eFG%. They’re also a top-50 offense in eFG% defense.
While the rankings are close for these two teams, most of it has to do with how North Alabama has the lowest TO% in the nation in games against Division I opponents. They’re not a particularly gifted shot-making team and are also stepping up in class in a big way just a few days after having the ultimate dream of making the NCAA Tournament dashed, just so they can travel to Peoria, IL.
Pick: Bradley -4.5
